A pandemic of fake news

There’s an epidemic of fake news:

1. Over at Econlog, I criticized President Trump’s decision to force meat-packing plants to re-open. I did this after seeing similar headlines in dozens of media sources. But it’s not at all clear that Trump actually did this. I’m still searching for confirmation that he is forcing meat-packing plants to re-open. Can anyone provide such evidence?

2. We are frequently told by Trump that there is no shortage of testing equipment for Covid-19. But it seems that the NBA season is currently endangered by a shortage of testing equipment:

Where it gets tricky for the NBA is that while 15,000 sounds like a lot of tests, it’s still attainable when you are a billion-dollar business. ESPN reports that several manufacturers could provide the NBA the tests it needs.

However, when you consider who the NBA might be outbidding or buying over for the tests — perhaps governments or essential services that need them — the idea of using them to stage basketball games becomes questionable unless the American public already has mass access to tests.

Per ESPN, Silver has insisted he can’t abide his league using a high volume tests when they are still in high demand. Silver has said he told President Donald Trump that sports leagues would love to be part of the movement to restart the economy, but he has also emphasized the importance of data in making the decision.

It looks like more fake news, from either Trump or Yahoo.com.

3.  Recall all those news stories that each year roughly 40,000 Americans die of the flu?  Scientific American says that most doctors have never, ever seen a single person die of the flu in their entire career:

When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.

Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?

I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience.

It seems that comparing flu deaths to Covid-19 deaths is an apples and oranges situation.  There are relatively few reported flu deaths, and the 40,000 figure is a CDC estimate based on extremely flimsy “models”.  In contrast, the Covid-19 death totals are generally actual reported cases.

So is the mainstream media’s reporting of 40,000 flu deaths fake news, or is Scientific American conveying fake news?  Your guess is as good as mine.

Then there’s this:

US President Donald Trump has appeared to undercut his own intelligence agencies by suggesting he has seen evidence coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory.

Earlier the US national intelligence director’s office said it was still investigating how the virus began.

But the office said it had determined Covid-19 “was not manmade or genetically modified”.

Where to start?  It’s fake news that the NIA director is contradicting Trump, as Trump didn’t say the virus was artificially created.  On the other hand, Trump is almost certainly conveying fake news, because almost everything he says is fake news.  Consider this:

At the White House on Thursday, Mr Trump was asked by a reporter: “Have you seen anything at this point that gives you a high degree of confidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was the origin of this virus?”

“Yes, I have. Yes, I have,” said the president, without specifying. “And I think the World Health Organization [WHO] should be ashamed of themselves because they’re like the public relations agency for China.”

Asked later to clarify his comment, he said: “I can’t tell you that. I’m not allowed to tell you that.”

LOL.  He’s as transparent as an 8-year old boy caught with his hand in the cookie jar.  If Trump actually had the goods on China, he wouldn’t desperately be trying to shift attention to the hugely unpopular WHO.

And “not allowed to tell”?  When did that ever stop Trump from spilling the beans when he thought he would benefit from doing so?  Need I remind you that there’s an election in 6 months, and that even Biden is bashing China?  If Trump were not making up lies about China we’d need to have him committed to an insane asylum right now; it would indicate something wrong with his mental apparatus.

Anthony Fowler has a good piece in Bloomberg discussing an avalanche of shoddy research on Covid-19, all done very quickly.  Yet despite the numerous examples he provides, there are many more he missed:

1. Reports that countries with TB vaccine do much better than non-vaccinated countries.

2.  Reports that wearing masks doesn’t help to protect the public.

3.  Reports that Chloroquine is effective.

4.  Studies that try to estimate mortality rates by taking a ratio of the number of people who have died so far, by the total number infected at a point in time, as if no one else who is infected will ever die.  (And let’s not even mention antibody studies full of selection bias and false positives.)


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44 Responses to “A pandemic of fake news”

  1. Gravatar of Mark Mark
    2. May 2020 at 11:29

    Is the WHO hugely unpopular though? According to the only poll I’ve seen, the WHO’s coronavirus handling had a net approval rating among Americans of +27. This is down from +54 before Trump’s criticisms started, but still significantly higher than the net approval ratings of Trump, Pence, or Congress, and increased slightly in the latest week. Perhaps “everyone is blaming the WHO” is another example of fake news.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/coronavirus-outbreak-tracker/

  2. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    2. May 2020 at 11:34

    Mark, Good point. I was projecting my own view of the WHO.

  3. Gravatar of Jg Jg
    2. May 2020 at 12:06

    Scott is a hoot. He does not believe in objective truth, yet constantly he carps about untruthful trump and the untruthful news stories. Every time he replies to this critique he writes go read rorty. Why would I read rorty if truth does not exist or humans are unable to perceive truth? By denying truth he is essentially comunicating “don’t listen to what I say.”

  4. Gravatar of Laura Laura
    2. May 2020 at 12:09

    It will be interesting to see how this post ages. In the past day, a five eyes briefing that documents “the goods” leaked from the Australian government.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/

    Though you seem to take the position it’s turtles all the way down. I can agree we long ago left the era when Alan Greenspan was a regular on the Nightly Business Report.

  5. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    2. May 2020 at 13:24

    “So is the mainstream media’s reporting of 40,000 flu deaths fake news, or is Scientific American conveying fake news? Your guess is as good as mine.”

    The question isn’t whether the mainstream media is reporting fake news but the CDC where the media get the numbers from. Scientific American went into steep decline in the 1990s for various reasons and this article by the doctor is another.

    There is also a good reason that in some cases the CDC lumps influenza deaths and flu deaths under a single category. The CDC isn’t way overestimating those deaths by “flimsy models.” How would an M.D. know anything about modeling?

    By the way, what you wrote isn’t correct: “Scientific American says that most doctors have never, ever seen a single person die of the flu in their entire career:” The doctor instead says he called colleagues and most said they couldn’t remember a death from flu while some could without providing any numbers. That’s an article for the New York Times, not Scientific American.

    It is clear that most, and in some areas, all Covid-19 deaths are any pneumonia deaths doctors see whereas doctors often wouldn’t add “influenza” on a death certificate when someone had died from pneumonia.

  6. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    2. May 2020 at 13:49

    Scott,
    Regarding BCG, read the latest article published two days ago in The Lancet (which together with the New England Journal of Medicine is one of the two most prestigious medical journals) authored by among other the Director General of the WHO.

    “Randomised controlled trials have provided evidence that the BCG vaccine’s immunomodulatory properties can protect against respiratory infections.”

    “The BCG vaccine might therefore reduce viraemia after SARS-COV-2 exposure, with consequent less severe COVID-19 and more rapid recovery.”

    “Whether BCG will be effective remains unknown: findings from the ecological studies suggesting less COVID-19 in countries with routine BCG immunisation are weak evidence because they are based on population rather than individual data and are prone to confounding.”

    Note:
    1. It does not say the studies are wrong or that the correlation is weak just that the methodology is weak.

    2. There is no citation of any evidence or articles to refute the studies suggesting a correlation between vaccinations and reduced mortality.

    In a previous comment you said, “I’ve seen some academic studies, and the correlation is really weak. It’s not a major factor (although it might play a tiny role.)”

    I don’t believe that is the case, I’ve seen studies that have criticized the results or methodology of the original studies, but I don’t think there are any studies showing that the correlation is really weak.

    (Also some of the critiques were deeply flawed because they relied on data that was not age adjusted.)

    Again, I’m not saying the correlation is there, but at present there is no better explanation for some of the very large differences in mortality between different countries.

  7. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    2. May 2020 at 13:57

    Scott, I now say that you claim the CDC uses “flimsy models” and as I said about the author, how would you know enough about modeling the flu to declare them flimsy?

  8. Gravatar of Gordon Gordon
    2. May 2020 at 14:19

    Here’s the relevant statement from the executive order listed on whitehouse.gov in which meat processing plants were declared as critical under the Defense Production Act:

    Under the delegation of authority provided in this order, the Secretary of Agriculture shall take all appropriate action under that section to ensure that meat and poultry processors continue operations consistent with the guidance for their operations jointly issued by the CDC and OSHA.

    You can read the entire executive order at https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-delegating-authority-dpa-respect-food-supply-chain-resources-national-emergency-caused-outbreak-covid-19/

  9. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    2. May 2020 at 15:43

    Jg, You said:

    “Scott is a hoot. He does not believe in objective truth, yet constantly he carps about untruthful trump and the untruthful news stories.”

    Glad you are amused. Has it ever occurred to you that I believe in subjective truth? That my subjective belief is that Trump is untruthful?

    Or is that sort of distinction too deep for you?

    Laura, I think your link is broken.

    Todd, So you agree with me? It’s fake news from one of the two sources?

    I was just reporting what SA said. But while we are at it. You did not dispute that the CDC model is to multiply reported deaths by 6. You did not dispute that the CDC includes pneumonia deaths in with flu deaths. You did not dispute the apples and oranges nature of comparing reported deaths of Covid-19 with modeled deaths from flu. Maybe that’s all fake news in SA, but I’d like to see documentation.

    dtoh, I actually think there is some correlation, I just don’t think it can explain major differences. As an analogy, Middlesex County MA has a 35 times higher death rate than Orange County. Weather is part of that, but obviously not enough to explain a 35 fold difference.

    In any case, somebody is reporting fake news on BCG, either the studies that say it’s a factor, or those that deny that.

    BTW, did you see this one:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20071142v2

    Part of my frustration is the way this has been presented. The initial studies made a big deal out of how Italy was different in its vaccine practices, and that this explained the high rates. Now that Italy is fairly typical, the goalposts have moved. Now it’s most of Western Europe. There may be a bit of truth in that, but the way it’s been presented over time does not inspire confidence.

    Gordon, Yes, I’ve seen that, but it’s written in legalese. I’m still wondering if Trump ordered meatpacking plants to remain open. Or did he tell his Ag secretary to “ensure” they remain open by non-coercive methods?

    Where did all the media get the term “ordered”? They all seem to have identical news accounts, using that term. Did the Administration say they were ordering plants to stay open?

  10. Gravatar of AMT AMT
    2. May 2020 at 16:06

    4. Studies that try to estimate mortality rates by taking a ratio of the number of people who have died so far, by the total number infected at a point in time, as if no one else who is infected will ever die.

    This has annoyed me soooo much lately!

    says that most doctors have never, ever seen a single person die of the flu in their entire career:

    Could that mostly be attributed to most doctors not working in the ICU, and most of the patients that eventually die of the flu progress FROM the emergency department (or elsewhere) to the ICU? I would imagine it is the very, very rare [emergency department, or other] doctor that thinks to check up on the 85 year old that came to them with flu symptoms and was transferred and then spent a couple weeks in the ICU before dying, after being initially stabilized in the ER.

  11. Gravatar of PC PC
    2. May 2020 at 16:19

    Hi Scott,

    I am no expert, but my understanding is that most flu deaths are among the elderly. Maybe nursing home staff reports would be a better anecdote?

    Always enjoy your candor.

  12. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    2. May 2020 at 17:06

    WHO Adviser Says It’s ‘Likely’ Coronavirus Leaked from Lab, Slams Trump Admin Response to Pandemic

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/who-adviser-says-its-likely-coronavirus-leaked-from-lab-slams-trump-admin-response-to-pandemic/

    Scott Sumner says the Wuhan lab leak story is fake news, but many experts disagree. Beijing is busy obliterating evidence and silencing knowledgeable people, aided by useful idiots in US media.

    Certainly, lab leaks are part of the historical record, even from the so-called BSL-4 virology Labs where the most dangerous viruses are studied. There are 70 such Labs on the planet.

    Surely, every virology lab anywhere on the planet should operate under complete and total transparency, open to unannounced international investigation at any time, and with complete, unhindered and open dialogue among international media, and social media, and lab employees.

    Nations that do not comply with such obviously basic and minimum necessary requirements should lose Most Favored Nation trading status and be subject to trade sanctions.

    We now know the huge economic costs of even a mild virus as global pandemic. Imagine if the next time is worse….

  13. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    2. May 2020 at 17:12

    Scott,
    Yes I did see https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20071142v2

    Even a cursory glance will tell you authors are morons (and I use that term guardedly.) Specifically, they say…

    “Moreover, none of the previous studies have either controlled for COVID-19 test intensity or have looked at the impact of test intensity on observed dependent variable of cases per million or deaths per million.

    No doubt, confirmed incidence is highly dependent on test intensity. However, it is completely ludicrous to suggest that test intensity has any significant impact on mortality. And their conclusions are entirely dependent on this incorrect assertion.

    And ultimately… the study does find there is a high correlation between BCG vaccination and mortality….until they contort the data based on the erroneous assertion that Covid mortality is being grossly underestimated in countries with less intensive testing.

    You also said, “Part of my frustration is the way this has been presented.”

    I’m not really seeing this. To me it’s mostly been a pretty straightforward presentation of the correlation without anyone making outrageous claims or asserting that it’s definitive.

  14. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    2. May 2020 at 18:24

    Todd, So you agree with me? It’s fake news from one of the two sources?

    I was just reporting what SA said. But while we are at it. You did not dispute that the CDC model is to multiply reported deaths by 6. You did not dispute that the CDC includes pneumonia deaths in with flu deaths. You did not dispute the apples and oranges nature of comparing reported deaths of Covid-19 with modeled deaths from flu.
    —————

    Yes, completely fake news from Scientific American, and I thought I said that. How can I dispute a quack who knows nothing about this and says the CDC multiplies reported deaths by 6?

    My point was that it will not be an apples and oranges comparison once reality sets in …around 2028. This is clearly a new flu strain no matter how much epidemiologists want to spin this to try to cover there ass. We have had 4 coronaviruses for decades and now we have a fifth. It is novel in that it is far more deadly among the obese and elderly than among the young, and almost nobody under 30 is dying from it.

  15. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    2. May 2020 at 19:13

    From The Economist magazine:

    “Many scientists think that with so many biologists actively hunting for bat viruses, and gain-of-function work becoming more common, the world is at increasing risk of a laboratory-derived pandemic at some point. “One of my biggest hopes out of this pandemic is that we address this issue—it really worries me,” says Dr Pilch. Today there are around 70 bsl-4 sites in 30 countries. More such facilities are planned.”

    —30—

    “Gain-of-function” work means artificially altering a virus to make it more infectious or lethal. Such work was underway in the Wuhan lab, where bat viruses were altered to become highly infectious to mice (the Wuhan lab published a paper on this research).

    Perhaps we can divine whether the Wuhan lab (or labs, there were two studying bat viruses in Wuhan) leaked or not, despite Beijing destroying evidence and silencing lab employees, denying international inspections, removing literature from the Internet and crushing all earnest media inquiry.

  16. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    2. May 2020 at 20:45

    That Scientific American piece rather adds to the hard questions to be asked about the CDC and its performance.

    There are flu season death spikes that vary from year to year. But perhaps ascribing them to the flu is itself misleading?

    More broadly, given the huge sums Western health departments “manage” (if that is the word), much bigger than defence departments, some hard questions need to be asked about their performances too.

    Why were there not stockpiles? Why is policy being made up on the fly? How come they have presided over such dramatic deteriorations in general metabolic health? How come Taiwan and South Korea can easily wheel out in situ thermometers?

    One might note that deteriorations in the metabolic health of the population tends to increase health department budgets, not reduce them. But, then, it is almost as if incentives matter …

  17. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    2. May 2020 at 20:47

    Ben: and you can add threatening trade relations with a significant trading partner (Australia) over Australian government ministers calling for an enquiry …

  18. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    2. May 2020 at 21:30

    Lorenzo from Oz:

    Australia is in a tough spot, being in so deep with China on business. I wish you luck. We can all envy Australia’s island status, and if your countrymen wish to decrease commercial relations with China, I am sure Australia can proper.

    In the US, the multinationals—Apple, GM, Tesla, Wal-Mart, BlackRock et al—are in deep with Beijing, “by the balls” and mute, though they fund chinapology globalist PR.

    There are plenty of trading partners besides China—Taiwan, Thailand, Japan, S Korea, India, Mexico—so a US decoupling from China should be relatively easy. There are global gluts of commodities and products.

    Interestingly, I recently obtained anecdotal evidence that typical Thai factory workers now make less than those in China. Migrant workers are departing Guangdong despite $28 a day in offered wages. Thai factory hands will work for $20 a day, with variations.

    We will see what public policy emerges in both nations. Thailand may be stumbling into a good future, per usual. And Thai people like Aussies!

  19. Gravatar of AureliuszKleks AureliuszKleks
    2. May 2020 at 22:05

    In Poland official number of flu deaths averages 67 a year, so their mortality rate would be ca. 70 times lower than American.

  20. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    3. May 2020 at 01:07

    Another great Sumner post, provocative, I like his flu deaths take, though I bet, like other posters have implied, the actual cause of death when granny gets the flu and dies in a hospital is “heart failure”, rather than “the flu”. Maybe ER physicians are used to viewing flu deaths this way too? (I.e., ‘the flu ridden patient wouldn’t have died if they had come to the hospital earlier and done intravenous hydration to keep their heart from stopping”)

    Another great post by Benjamin Cole. If he wrote a blog and I had to pay money to view it, I just might! Or donate via PayPal a small amount.

    PS–the Metabunk.org site seems to have rejected my post arguing of the probable escape from Wuhan of a chimeric virus, perhaps on behalf of their readers, who apparently favor the status quo over unsettling revolutionary claims. And right now vested interests, largely multinationals with manufacturing in China, have a bias towards keeping the China-US trade intact, so this is where the media advertising dollars are going to go to, and to the sites that promote the status quo (Twitter showed that when they banned ZeroHedge for an innocent anti-China conspiracy post on WIV hiring, to appease their stakeholders). It would be different if the US still had a manufacturing base.

  21. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    3. May 2020 at 01:13

    I don’t mean the doctor is a quack in his own line of work, just where he is going in an area he doesn’t know much about – like epidemiology. Are there other doctors out there clamoring for the CDC to try to figure out how many flu deaths there are every season? I haven’t heard of any yet.

  22. Gravatar of Todd Kreider Todd Kreider
    3. May 2020 at 01:16

    I should have written: “Are there other doctors out there clamoring for the CDC to significantly lower flu/pneumonia estimates of deaths since 1976 when they first started to keep track?”

  23. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    3. May 2020 at 02:51

    Having a mainstream media addicted to conflict narratives, and inclined to goodies v baddies conflict narratives (inserting themselves in as goodies) is not helpful.

    But nor is their predilection in science “reporting” to ‘gee whiz!’ narratives. A lot of science reporting is pretty poor. I can very much recommend Ben Goldacre’s book “Bad Science” on media reporting as science. It is enlightening but depressing.
    https://www.amazon.com/Bad-Science-Quacks-Pharma-Flacks/dp/0865479186/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2S85KQI7N4Z6K&dchild=1&keywords=ben+goldacre&qid=1588502737&sprefix=ben+gold%2Caps%2C1190&sr=8-1

    He makes the point that sporting journalism assumes a knowledgeable audience, as does finance reporting (we might demur a little there) but science reporting seems systematically dumbed down.

    The Covid-19 pandemic is a perfect storm for bad media reporting. Seeking conflict narratives, putting themselves up as the goodies in a goodies v baddies conflict narratives, reverting to ‘gee whiz’ narratives plus their generally poor standard of science reporting anyway.

  24. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    3. May 2020 at 02:57

    Ben: China is currently Australia’s biggest trading partner, but it is hardly the first country to occupy that spot. A floating exchange rate will also help insulate us against any sudden shocks.

    But China buys from us because we are high volume, efficient, stable and reliable. How much they are genuinely willing to jeopardise that will be a sign of how worried the Beijing regime is over enquiring into the origins of the Covid-19 virus.

    The regime’s entire policy is driven around regime survival in response to the existential shock of the Soviet collapse. They have no intention of going quietly into that modernising-commercial democratising good night.

  25. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    3. May 2020 at 03:52

    “Another great post by Benjamin Cole. If he wrote a blog and I had to pay money to view it, I just might! Or donate via PayPal a small amount.”–Ray Lopez

    Finally! I am appreciated! It came late in life, but better than never.

    I have my “Tin-Foil Hat Economist” YouTube channel, which is free and worth every penny, for those who wish some edutainment.

    —-30—-

    Oz:

    I liked your “Goodies v. Baddies and we are in the side of the Goodies” insight.

    —30—

    And from the Land of Inexplicables:

    Thailand was receiving 1 million Chinese tourists a month until the C19 thing. It was China on Jan. 28 that blocked group travel to Thailand, not vice versa.

    So today Thailand, pop. 70 m., has had 2,738 C19 cases and 54 deaths.

    The US, pop. 328 m., has 1.13 million cases and 66,385 deaths.

    Ballpark it, the US is three times as large as Thailand population wise and has had a death rate 1,000 times that of Thailand per capita, from C19.

    I don’t have the facts and figures, but if anywhere on the planet is densely packed with people, it is Bangkok, and many people ride busses or the Skytrain or the subway, packed like sardines. Greater Bangkok is 22 million people.

    Thailand is now relaxing some lockdowns, although my guess is people were relaxed already, although they do wear masks in town. Every salon or barbershop, for example, has been secretly open.

    Maybe the masks work.

  26. Gravatar of mf mf
    3. May 2020 at 04:49

    Re: Land of Inexplicables:

    Mean BMI Asia ~ 23, Mean BMI US/Europe ~ 29 … this appears to explain most of it.

  27. Gravatar of Njnnja Njnnja
    3. May 2020 at 05:36

    While no one should put it past the administration to outright lie about the Wuhan lab theory, there is an interpretation that is consistent. The intelligence communication (which is strange that it even exists; intelligence agencies don’t usually make statements at all) just talks about man made or genetically engineered. It doesn’t deny that it escaped from a lab. This is an important distinction, since while there might be moral and political responsibility if it is a naturally occurring virus that escaped from a lab due to negligence, there would be much more serious implications about biological warfare treaties if it were engineered and released.

    The “non-man made” clarifying statement is a prophylactic for when, say, journalists track down the source of COVID-19 (which is likely to happen someday) so that people don’t jump to the conclusion that just because this came from a lab, the lab must have created it. They were probably just studying this thing they found, and then had an accident.

  28. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    3. May 2020 at 05:51

    Belarus is an extreme case, with hardly any restrictions on activity, and about 14,000 cases and 89 deaths.— Marginal Revolution

    Shouldn’t US media be talking a lot more about Belarus and Sweden?

  29. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    3. May 2020 at 06:01

    Scott, you are getting closer to seeing reality. If only you just step back from Trump —-he is a big noise clouding your vision. Yes, we have a doctor claiming to not be aware of any person dying of flu—or knowing any doctor who does. In fact, the CDC has no category for flu. They have a category for “flu and pneumonia”. Why should you think we have a category for Covid-19 that stands alone? We do not REALLY have that cavity.

    Reality is the uncertainty of all information beyond the largest of categories. How is it even remotely possible—-I have written this before—and while I admire your mule like stubbornness (otherwise MM would not exist) that East and SE Asia with double P.R. triple the population on less land mass than Western Europe and NA combined have 1/80th of the death rate?

    We KNOW of no pandemic theory that can create such outcomes, given where this began.

    Before any of us can understand what is actually happening, we first must realize our information is both reliable and unreliable—-but we have very few methods for understanding which is which.

    Then, we need to look at simple ordinary uncomplicated history. About 60 million people die a year (Or is it 50, or maybe it is 90 or 45?) world wide. And this virus will add what? 5million? 1 million? 300K? We have no idea—-less so because we have these absurd real counting machines.

    Ordinary uncomplicated history says voluntary shutting down our economic activity is not good. How not good? Well, we have some idea. Down 30%? 20% 10%. 40%? What does that cause? Bad things. 1 million deaths? 30 million? —over what time frame?

    We don’t know. You are an economist and a smart man. Tyler pretends to think there is some kind of race between two equally damaging possible events—-not stopping Covid-19 and his now almost eponymous “IRREVERSIBLE non-linear” economic collapse.

    I do not no about the irreversible part—-but….

    In a world where info is conflicting, unverified and approximate—-what is the wisest thing to do? Trust the “human markets” or let various politicians tell us what we can and cannot do?

    Why is this, of all things, one area where you seem more comfortable with the latter?

    It cannot be the right way.

  30. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    3. May 2020 at 07:08

    PS—-another example of uncertain information, which for a period of time seemed to be critical ——ventilators. I like inside the lines info, like friends and relatives of mine who are front liners. So, one of the things we have learned is low oxygen levels in blood are extremely dangerous—-and that is why ventilators were considered critical——which made sense. Until they forgot something they always knew—-which is having a patient lie on their side or stomach to raise oxygen levels in blood. Our active cases are still high, but our ventilation situation is massive over supply—-because we rediscovered we do not need as many as we thought. All of us are impacted by uncertain information.

    I prefer free markets. Even—-maybe especially—-during economic crisis. This does not mean free markets will create unity and heaven on earth—just the likely best outcome given the circumstances.

  31. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    3. May 2020 at 07:14

    PPS—-combined with oxygen breathing tubes in nostrils

  32. Gravatar of Anon Anon
    3. May 2020 at 07:49

    Michael Rulle
    [quote]
    Then, we need to look at simple ordinary uncomplicated history. About 60 million people die a year (Or is it 50, or maybe it is 90 or 45?) world wide. And this virus will add what? 5million? 1 million? 300K? We have no idea—-less so because we have these absurd real counting machines.

    Ordinary uncomplicated history says voluntary shutting down our economic activity is not good. How not good? Well, we have some idea. Down 30%? 20% 10%. 40%? What does that cause? Bad things. 1 million deaths? 30 million? —over what time frame?
    [/quote]

    While the above addresses one unknown (what % of populace world over would have died in this pandemic absent shutdown), the other unknown is ignored (would the economic malaise – vis-a-vis X% adverse impact on economy in shutdown – without a shutdown have been comparably worse?). Would that be 1.1X or 1.5X or 2X% down with more stress on healthcare infrastructure? Would that result in a population that brays for the blood of those in charge when the death toll suddenly becomes too high; riots and death due to riots? Would that be a irreparable loss to human capital – skilled and unskilled – that would take just too long to be built again?

    What is your playbook and approach for that? Between worse and worser – which one to choose?

  33. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    3. May 2020 at 09:07

    AMT and PC, I agree. My dad died of emphysema, or he died of the flu. Either claim is plausible.

    dtoh, I won’t comment on that study, as I am not knowledgable enough in the field. I don’t even know what “mortality rate” means. Death per infection? Per 1000 people?

    AureliuszKleks. Yes, I think it’s partly definitional.

    Michael, You said:

    “Trust the “human markets” or let various politicians tell us what we can and cannot do?
    Why is this, of all things, one area where you seem more comfortable with the latter?”

    Are you nuts? You think I trust the politicians? LOL.

  34. Gravatar of MJ MJ
    3. May 2020 at 09:38

    The issue is lack of context in our news, not outright fake news. The flu deaths reported number is the expert consensus distillation of CDC data and the Scientific American article is an opinion piece about how that CDC data should be presented. Neither is fake news.

  35. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    3. May 2020 at 16:05

    I agree with MJ, the truth is complicated, there is not one truth (you believe in Rorty yourself). So one side does not have to lie or spread fake news, there are simply several ways to present a topic.

    The emergency doctor certainly has some interesting points, which I’ve seen similar in the past.

    His “survey” amongst colleagues is questionable though and not representative. He also asked in the wrong places. Influenza deaths are no rarity. I have never seen anyone die from a gunshot wound or from a traffic accident, but I would never claim that the death figures are wrong. I simply know that my working place, internal medicine wards, are the wrong place for that kind of death.

    I worked in internal medicine ward for years and we had people dying of influenza every year. In years of a severe wave of flu, in the peak phase, we certainly had 2-3 per week, sometimes lasting for 2-4 months, and our hospital is very small. Most of them were pretty old people, of course.

    The joke among internists is: “Everyone under 75 is a young patient to us.”

    Old people, and I mean really old people, usually die in internal medicine wards, and NOT so much in emergency rooms or intensive care units.

  36. Gravatar of dtoh dtoh
    3. May 2020 at 16:45

    Scott,

    Come on! You can’t cite a study to buttress your argument and then when it’s questioned, say… “I won’t comment on that study, as I am not knowledgeable enough in the field.”

  37. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    4. May 2020 at 04:11

    Scott, yes, of course you do not trust the pols——and maybe I have missed your forest message for the trees——but have not noticed you advocating for a more “free” market solution. If you have—-great.

  38. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    4. May 2020 at 04:30

    Anon——I agree with your general point. And had I been in power, I might have done what we all have decided to go with. But too much information is now out—-and the magnitude of the various uncertainties are growing at pretty large percentage and a even some willfully bad information is being inserted. And the magnitude of economic uncertainty is most the most distressing of all.

    Looking forward, the governments should eliminate all restrictions—-if we want to play into the deception that it matters if we do it gradually like in 4-6 weeks——okay—-but with certainty.

  39. Gravatar of Michael Rulle Michael Rulle
    4. May 2020 at 04:50

    PS—-and the population will decide

  40. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    4. May 2020 at 10:54

    Good post Scott. Well said and interesting examples.

  41. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    4. May 2020 at 10:56

    @Lorenzo, you write:

    “Having a mainstream media addicted to conflict narratives, and inclined to goodies v baddies conflict narratives (inserting themselves in as goodies) is not helpful.”

    You can omit the word “mainstream.” The fringe media does the same, but even more so.

  42. Gravatar of Travis Allison Travis Allison
    4. May 2020 at 13:03

    A doctor I know said the seasonal flu makes you susceptible to bacterial pneumonia. The flu itself rarely causes pneumonia. I think the reasoning for the CDC numbers is that without the flu, those people who died of pneumonia wouldn’t have died.

    Covid19 does directly cause pneumonia.

  43. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    4. May 2020 at 13:58

    Michael, You said:

    “but have not noticed you advocating for a more “free” market solution.”

    Then you haven’t been paying attention.

  44. Gravatar of Anon Anon
    4. May 2020 at 19:15

    FWIW, I agree with you Michael. Treating this and any pandemic with

    (a) this corona virus is going to be there forever along with the biggest parasite attached to the earth ecosystem Homo sapiens
    (b) new untreatable corona and other virii will come along every few years
    (c) there isn’t going to be a effective vaccine for 18-24 months, in sufficient does, if at all there is going to be a vaccine

    and go about how to have a adjusted-to-the-new-reality life is the best course of action IMO.

    Indian government seems to have taken that approach – there is a lock down 3.0 but that has lot of allowed things in green and orange and red zones, except containment zones. I think they have made a calculated decision that the past 6 weeks of lock down has given enough, touch wood, capacity to treat any surge of new cases; keep the mortality rate down; and to restart the economy.

    And the tipplers are happy all the way to start contributing to government coffers.

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