Which one doesn’t belong?
About 6 weeks ago I was notified by Foreign Policy magazine that I would make their list of “100 Global Thinkers” this year. I didn’t mention this in the blog because I assumed it must have been some sort of mix-up on their part. But sure enough there’s my name on the list. And not in the high 90s, where I expected to be. (Who’s that other person at 15 . . . some guy named Ben Bernanke.)
Thursday I leave for Washington DC and get to meet the other 99 (or that portion of global thinkers that shows up at the dinner.) Hillary Clinton will be the speaker. I’ve never actually met anyone famous, so this will be interesting. There are also some events during the day—seminars with foreign policy experts. Foreign policy is one of my many weak areas, perhaps my weakest.
We were asked to fill out a form with questions such as what were the three best books we had read over the past year. I should have mentioned Javier Marias’s Your Face Tomorrow, but forgot that I had read it. It’s also a book that is loosely related to foreign policy.
Found out today that the gala event requires business attire. I suppose that means a dark suit. I checked in the closet and my only business suit (not worn in 25 years) had some holes, and was a bit tight around the waist. So I bought my first suit in 30 years or so.
I’ll be very busy between now and the end of the year, with an enormous amount of grading to do. So I’ll probably do less blogging, and may be very slow in responding to emails.
PS. Travis sent me the link for my testimony on Capitol Hill with David Beckworth.
PPS. Tyler Cowen was on last year’s list. He told me that most of the politicians don’t show up for the dinner. And two people could not show up because they were in prison (not in the US, needless to say.) Fortunately one of them has been released, and now tops the FP 100 list. A great woman.
PPPS. Narayana Kocherlakota was number 10 on the list. Quite of few others made it as well, although I haven’t had time to work through the entire list.
Now that I’m looking at the complete list, maybe I shouldn’t have bought the cheapest suit in the store.
Update: This link has all 100 plus faces in an easy to read screen that scrolls down (see bottom of page.)
Tags:
25. November 2012 at 20:22
In the video, Beckworth looks like he could be a military officer.
25. November 2012 at 20:27
GO SCOTT GO!!!!
25. November 2012 at 20:30
I hate to tell you this Scott, but YOU’RE famous now.
25. November 2012 at 20:38
Congratulations Scott – much deserved. I’m glad you’ve invested in a new suit. Based on your pics, I would say you’re a ‘Spring’. Accordingly, your palette can be found here: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-08Q3LzirA0Y/T7ZcOj30qcI/AAAAAAAAGbw/Ism23kMrZx0/s1600/ColourMeBeautiful-Spring.jpg
25. November 2012 at 20:39
Success.
Buffett is on the list; maybe he will explain in person that really taxes are zero and the lie was thinking we’re paying anything at all.
25. November 2012 at 21:02
Make sure you get a chat with Zingales, Haidt and also Nitish Kumar (My grandpa was from Bihar). Also I guess Chetty and Feldstein. And Lomborg I guess.
Ooh and Indrawati. If she shows up. also it would be cool to meet Rushdie. And say hi to Krugman of course!
Oh heck, also Romer, Acemoglu & Robinson, Duflo, and Willem Buiter of course. And what about Piketty and Saez?
You might even meet Lagarde or Ai Weiwei… and Chen Guancheng!
Hew Strachan sounds like a Sumnerian…
OK perhaps this is not such an honor, I see Sandel made the list too… Oh God, so did Buffet and his secretary.
Holy heck Murakami is also there must meet him!!
Oh hell – Draghi is there too. What if they let you debate him…
In fact it would be a crime if Scott Sumner went to a meeting with Draghi and Bernanke and said nothing to them…
Sorry, this is just one long fantasy by me, imagining myself there…
do Bill and Melinda really need to be that high up?
25. November 2012 at 21:07
Those guys basically don’t seem to get the difference between nominal and real GDP… which sort of makes their Sandel endorsement comprehensible.
Oh and don’t worry Scott, Foreign Policy magazine is not necessarily always about foreign policy… just sound like an intellectual and you’ll be fine. You were great at that Kauffman event I remember. They’ll take anyone who seems like an *it* guy.
Still awesome that you made the list, a lot of eyeballs on that one…
25. November 2012 at 21:10
Are you planning on rocking a bowtie as well? You should consider it, straight guys wear them too you know.
25. November 2012 at 21:13
Do you get to take your family?
25. November 2012 at 21:24
Scott, you realize that the Great Recession is like an immensely consequential thing for foreign policy? All you need to do is find a way to segue into talking about your theory of why the great recession happened, don’t blame the banks or the housing bubble etc. FP didn’t mention those views of yours! It will be news to most people. That should give you plenty to talk about.
25. November 2012 at 21:24
You even beat Emmanuel Saez!
Your “portrait” is easily the best part of the feature. You look like one those drawings in the airline safety cards – I think the guy who inflates his vest before leaving the aircraft.
In all seriousness, this was well deserved. Congratulations.
25. November 2012 at 21:26
Oh and make sure you chat to Kocherlakota duh!
25. November 2012 at 21:26
lol Michael nailed it.
25. November 2012 at 21:27
Good for you, Scott. I’m guessing you’re the only one on the list who got there by blogging provocative ideas.
25. November 2012 at 21:37
Damn are they blocking me now?
25. November 2012 at 21:39
Kudos! 1000 kudos!!!
25. November 2012 at 21:41
Greg, actually no… http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/26/the_fp_100_global_thinkers?page=0,33#thinker45
25. November 2012 at 21:41
Hmmm, that’s pretty funny, WordPress is literally blocking out the competition, won’t let me link to Navalny’s LiveJournal…
25. November 2012 at 21:57
scott will you sign my textbook? 😀
25. November 2012 at 22:36
Wonderful! Congratulations–you deserve to be there.
25. November 2012 at 23:16
Congrats. Well deserved!!
25. November 2012 at 23:25
Well done and, as previously stated, well-deserved.
26. November 2012 at 00:46
Congratulations!
Did you never actually meet Milton Friedman then?
26. November 2012 at 01:27
Congratulations!
26. November 2012 at 03:52
and right next to pussy riot, hopefully tables are organized by number!
26. November 2012 at 04:03
and all released from prison of course!
26. November 2012 at 04:49
Wonderful. Congratulations, Scott.
26. November 2012 at 05:33
Thanks everyone.
Saturos, Regarding Ai Weiwei, I am pretty sure I’ll be the only one there who :
1. Saw the recent documentary about him.
2. Walked right by his house in an obscure suburban neighbohood called Caochangdi this past August. The dinner will be at his exhibit at the Hirshhorn, which I saw last month when I was at Capitol Hill.
I’d love to meet Murakami, but I doubt he’ll come.
Among economists I think I trailed only Kocherlakota. I guess the key is to start out with the wrong idea then change your mind. Oh wait, you first have to be in a very high profile position–as a Bentley blogger it probably wouldn’t have worked. I guarantee that’s the first and last time I’ll ever finish ahead of Krugman on any list!
My family wasn’t invited. Indeed when I first heard about this I didn’t know what it was. I was planning on not attending because I usually teach that night. Then Tyler Cowen told me I had to go, so I switched the class to Wednesday night.
26. November 2012 at 05:35
Congratulations!
26. November 2012 at 05:42
You deserved this Scott. We are all proud!
26. November 2012 at 05:59
Very cool Scott. You’ll be fending off Riksbank prizes with a pitchfork in 15 years.
26. November 2012 at 05:59
Congratulations Scott. Much deserved. Hopefully the ever growing recognition will give you the confidence to ever more aggressively counter those spewing confusion and propaganda both on the right and left (like Krugman).
26. November 2012 at 06:06
congrats, definitely well deserved!
26. November 2012 at 06:52
These lists tend to be a little silly (is Paul Ryan a top global thinker? Is he a thinker at all? Is Angela Merkel? Etc.) but congrats to you Scott! It is certainly well deserved and having you mingling with the Very Serious People is a win for all of us who want better economic policies. Just don’t become a VSP yourself ok? 🙂
And bonus points for mentioning that “For the eurozone to double down with a fiscal union” is the worst idea. Much appreciated by many of us here on the European side of the pond.
26. November 2012 at 07:19
Why do they call it the Top 100 Global Thinkers when there are 125 people on the list?
26. November 2012 at 08:05
maximillienne wrote: “and right next to pussy riot, hopefully tables are organized by number!”
That’s hilarious, look at all the people who would have to sit together:
Bill and Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama and Paul Ryan
Angela Merkel and Ehud Barak
Ben Bernanke, Scott Sumner, and P**** Riot
Mario Draghi and George Soros
Paul Krugman and Salman Rushdie
26. November 2012 at 08:17
Foreign Policy Magazine is controlled by the neo-con entrenched beltarian Washington Post Company. Those with a memory will recall the WaPo was a hat in hand mouthpiece of the WMD propaganda leading up to the invasion of the middle east, which ended up with the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, as well as birth defects and permanent injuries. The WaPo is owned in large part by, among others, the family of the late Eugene Meyer, chairman of the board of the US banking cartel from 1930-1933.
A neo-conservative magazine, owned by a pro-banking cartel family, giving a nod to market monetarism. And the lackies on this site are saying congrats.
26. November 2012 at 08:30
face it MF, you and bob murphy have failed to derail the MM world domination train.
26. November 2012 at 09:04
I’m guessing these fools didn’t read your posts on the election, which were brilliant and unexpected to me but fly completely in the face of establishment type people. My respect for you went up an order of magnitude with the election posts and stayed the same after this latest announcement.
Would love to see a foreign policy post where you just give some free flowing opinions. What do you think about the war on terror?
26. November 2012 at 09:07
Congrats, Scott.
26. November 2012 at 09:19
What do you think of the BoE appointing Carney? You’ve often written how big economies should “poach” central bankers doing a good job in small countries. Do you think this was a good choice? Do you consider Carney pro-MM? What should Britain look forward to?
26. November 2012 at 09:21
If I was nominally the most powerful man in the world, I only came in seventh, and was damned with this faint praise;
‘For redrawing America’s global footprint.’
I’d stay home and pretend to launch my nuclear weapons.
26. November 2012 at 09:23
‘Why do they call it the Top 100 Global Thinkers when there are 125 people on the list?’
Inflation.
26. November 2012 at 09:38
Congrats of course. I used to think you owed Tyler Cowen a beer for that link to your blog he posted years back. Now I think perhaps a brewery.
26. November 2012 at 09:52
I have been a long time reader of your blog and have never left a response until today. Congratulations Scott! Well deserved!
26. November 2012 at 10:38
Scott
I don´t think any idea in economics has “travelled” so fast as MM & NGDP Level Targeting.
OK, technology (internet, blog) helped, but even so…
Congrats, and putting you side by side with Bernanke will serve as a reminder, to him, on what his duties are.
Before reading this post with the fantastic news I suggested Bernanke put up on his wall the well-known picture on NGDP & Trend.
http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/things-are-really-bad-when-those-responsible-don%C2%B4t-realize-it%C2%B4s-their-responsibility/
26. November 2012 at 11:03
Major_Freeman: “A neo-conservative magazine”
You forgot to weave Warren Buffet into your conspiracy.
26. November 2012 at 11:13
Steve: Nobody said anything about any “conspiracy.” It’s about human incentives and moral codes.
26. November 2012 at 11:15
ChargerCarl:
face it MF, you and bob murphy have failed to derail the MM world domination train.
To the world’s detriment. I feel far worse about that than what you seem to be insinuating.
Face it ChargerCarl, you’re more concerned with popularity than you are with truth.
26. November 2012 at 13:05
the afro-brazilian school will be the first to be purged MF
26. November 2012 at 13:11
Punch Mario Draghi in the face for me, if he shows up.
You can say it’s from me.
26. November 2012 at 13:38
Scott, if you see Draghi please ask him to strengthen the monetary pillar of the ECB by focusing on the velocity-adjusted measure of money supply.
26. November 2012 at 13:59
This is pure BS… you should be #1.
26. November 2012 at 14:12
scott:
if you should be #13 on the list.
26. November 2012 at 14:13
i mean you should be #1 on the list.
26. November 2012 at 14:56
Top 100 Central Planners? Scott proudly accepts that honor.
26. November 2012 at 15:14
I’m trying to imagine a cocktail party with Scott, Krugman, Bernanke, Rand Paul, and Slavoj Zizek. Would make a great one act play.
26. November 2012 at 15:47
Hurrah!
China has to be high-fiving right now.
26. November 2012 at 15:57
Ladies and gents, when the camera is on, Scott says 4.5%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmekJAAO2es#t=21m28s
Can we PLEASE just stick with that #???
It is important to winning conservatives and Scott knows it, admits it, and show it…
Move the ball. Say 4.5%. Stick with it.
The real headline is that at 4.5% NGDPLT on a futures market from 2000 on, we never get the Housing Crisis.
NO HOUSING CRISIS
This is the meat, can’t we now put it in the window?
26. November 2012 at 16:08
“The real headline is that at 4.5% NGDPLT on a futures market from 2000 on, we never get the Housing Crisis.”
I really really wish that were true, but it’s not. Credit underwriting / credit policy matter a lot. Plus, if you target a low enough inflation rate, on average 50% of housing markets will be declining at any point in time.
26. November 2012 at 17:03
Congratulations on your selection, but greater honors if you still fit into that 25 year old business suit. I know you probably wear academic casual most of the time, but isn’t Bentley a business college? You never had to wear a suit?
It reminds me of an old Dilbert cartoon where an economist at a blackboard says, “And this equation shows why I know everything about money but still dress like a flood victim.”
Save your money, rent a tux, and enjoy your well earned honor good sir. (But Macy’s can hook you up for about $30. Nordstrom’s for a few hundred more. Nordstrom Rack will save you a ton if you are lucky to find your size. Make a bold statement with your tie, and polish the shoes)
26. November 2012 at 17:04
Sorry, that’s $300, not $30. Inflation.
26. November 2012 at 20:14
Here is an interesting piece on the Hirshhorn exhibit: http://www.openculture.com/2012/07/whos_afraid_of_ai_weiwei_a_short_documentary.html
And I assume everyone’s already seen this: http://www.openculture.com/2012/11/ai_weiweis_parody_of_gangnam_style.html
26. November 2012 at 20:49
Changing the topic now:
– Bruce Bartlett, yesterday.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/revenge-of-the-reality-based-community/
And I thought he was on our side…
26. November 2012 at 20:51
This is even sadder:
Is America really like that these days?
26. November 2012 at 21:05
Saturos:
Is America really like that these days?
You visit this blog don’t you?
26. November 2012 at 21:15
Congratulations Scott! I hope you get to meet Bernanke and can have a conversation with him. Hopefully within the next decade, we’ll get to see you on the FOMC.
27. November 2012 at 02:51
Saturos,
As I see it, Democrat and Republican are not so much left and right, as Blue and Red. There is are two gangs which compete for dominance. What Barlett did was sell out his gang, which is about the worst thing you can possibly do in gangland.
27. November 2012 at 05:08
Doug M, Or Blue and Green: http://lesswrong.com/lw/gt/a_fable_of_science_and_politics/
MF, I kinda thought that was just you.
Scott, this can only bode well for your future book sales.
27. November 2012 at 05:32
Saturos, I’ve already seen the Ai Weiwei exhibit, and I was already planning a post on the Bartlett article, which I thought was great.
27. November 2012 at 05:40
Saturos, No, America is not like that these days. I have lots of Republican friends and none of them would care at all if I switched to the Dems. He must have had some really evil people as friends.
27. November 2012 at 05:43
Morgan, Welcome back–but Steve’s right.
27. November 2012 at 07:07
It is great for the progress of monetary policy that Scott got to near the top of the list.
Obviously Kocherlakota does not belong as number 10, perhaps he should be on the list, somewhere near the bottom, for having seen the light.
Ryan, having been soundly defeated, does not belong anywhere near the top. Besides, his numbers really do not add up.
27. November 2012 at 08:06
This, from Bruce Bartlett;
‘Tellingly, a key reason for Obama’s victory, according to exit polls, is none other than George W. Bush, whom 60 percent of voters primarily blame for the nation’s economic woes””an extraordinary fact when he has been out of office for four years. Even though they didn’t read my Impostor book, voters still absorbed its message.’
Is enshrined in the Excess Self-Esteem Hall of Fame.
27. November 2012 at 08:14
Here, btw, is a good example of the reason voters blame Republicans for the recent unpleasantness;
http://seattletimes.com/html/soundeconomywithjontalton/2019768205_wanted_a_real_watchdog_for_the.html
‘When Franklin Roosevelt created the Securities and Exchange Commission to combat the widespread fraud on Wall Street that helped bring on the Depression….’
That kind of ignorance still circulates widely–which is the residue of propaganda masters Willi Muenzenberg and Otto Katz (best known as the inspiration for the Casablanca character, Victor Lazlo).
The problem for Republicans is that they now don’t have a Ronald Reagan who can counter those foolish ideas. Or, pace Mitch Daniels, they don’t have anyone who wants to bother.
27. November 2012 at 08:42
Also, today is the Fed Challenge final in DC, in which Bentley defends its crown. Here’s a video of the Harvard team’s presentation in 2011;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlGhs4X_vJA&feature=relmfu
27. November 2012 at 09:55
Congratulations Scott and two cheers to the power of ideas.
27. November 2012 at 10:26
[…] Way to go Scott! Sumner’s response: “I was planning on not attending because I usually teach that night. Then Tyler Cowen told […]
27. November 2012 at 13:14
Bruce Bartlett wrote:
“At this point, I lost every last friend I had on the right. Some have been known to pass me in silence at the supermarket or even to cross the street when they see me coming. People who were as close to me as brothers and sisters have disowned me.”
After reading that, Prof. Sumner wrote:
“Saturos, No, America is not like that these days. I have lots of Republican friends and none of them would care at all if I switched to the Dems. He must have had some really evil people as friends.”
More context needed here. It seems to me that both Bartlett and Sumner’s stories could be true. Critically, Bartlett is not describing the way most Republican friendships work. He’s describing the way friendships work among elite Republican policymakers in Washington, D.C.
I imagine that Sumner’s Republican friends are not nearly as “on the take” as Bartlett’s (former) Republican friends. Bartlett’s crowd has a much stronger incentive to excommunicate dissenters than Sumner’s crowd does.
That about right?
27. November 2012 at 17:44
Travis, Maybe that’s it.
Patrick, That’s a monumentally stupid comment by the Seattle Times.
28. November 2012 at 20:00
Wait.
This is Steve:
“Credit underwriting / credit policy matter a lot. Plus, if you target a low enough inflation rate, on average 50% of housing markets will be declining at any point in time.”
Scott has AGREED ON CAMERA UNDER PRESSURE with 4.5%.
That is done.
My point is under 4.5% NGDPLT in 2004-2007, millions of bad credit risks are not being given homes, with no money down, at wildly inflating values.
And he says in response “50% of houses will be declining in value.”
AND THAT WOULD MAKE 2004-2007 NOT HAPPEN.
You can’t have 50% of housing stock declining AND have 2004-2007.
They are mutually exclusive.
So I’m left with his single sentence that credit and credit markets matter A LOT.
And I don’t disagree.
But if the automatic ships captain has its hand on the wheel at 4.6% in 2004, and it starts pushing it back toward 4.5%…
And the credit markets go INSANE and just keep writing loans on greater and greater assumptions of fake home value, and lower and lower standards on proof of income.
And the credit markets are trying to push the economy to 4.7% or higher!
The automated captain hand is now BRUTALLY sucking more and more $ out of the economy to keep the boat at 4.5%
If this is wrong, I need more than a couple stacked up sentences that don’t even follow each other logically.
——
Let’s play it as an RPG.
Steve assume right at Jan 1, 2004 we crested at 4.5% NGDPLT and have no further make-up we were supposed to allow…
You be the credit markets, the mortgage originators, the bundlers, and Barney Frank…
I’ll be the automated captains hand (the computer running the money supply).
Please explain to me how you find the money to loan, keep the wild housing appreciation of 2004-2007, and never crack 4.5%.
If you say at any point, you will maybe crack 4.5%, the it is my turn to play.
29. November 2012 at 18:46
Good luck to Scott today at the dinner!
29. November 2012 at 19:56
And yet, their summary seems to confuse is a fundamental way what your core idea actually is:
Confusing real growth and nominal spending in a summary of monetary policy. Doh!
1. December 2012 at 07:30
John, Yes, that was unfortunate.