Elections matter less than you think

Here’s another example of a point I keep making:

The second was the 2015 general election. The Conservatives won this election with a slender majority, but on policy terms, Ed Miliband’s Labour party were the victors. His policies on capping energy prices and a national living wage were laughed at but later adopted by the Tories, as was his rhetoric on the dangers of unfettered capitalism. Mr Miliband lost the election but won the ideas war.

Meanwhile Americans elected Trump and we ended up with Obamacare.

Speaking of Trump, I’d like to see a bit more respect for our President from the cabinet:

Tillerson was responding to an NBC News report that Vice President Pence had to talk him out of resigning following Trump’s rambling, highly politicized speech to a gathering of Boy Scouts this summer. Tillerson is a former national president of the organization.

The NBC report also said that after the speech Tillerson called Trump a “moron.”

Meanwhile Josh Barro says that’s not exactly what he said:

On MSNBC, @SRuhle cites a source who says Tillerson called the president a “fucking moron,” not just a regular moron.

I can’t understand how these cabinet members get so hysterical about Trump.  Sure he’s a moron, I’ve said so many times.  But calling him a f****** moron is a bit over the top, don’t you think?  Take a chill pill.

Meanwhile, Black Lives Matter attempts to push more people into the Trump camp:

Students affiliated with the Black Lives Matter movement crashed an event at the College of William & Mary, rushed the stage, and prevented the invited guest—the American Civil Liberties Union’s Claire Gastañaga, a W & M alum—from speaking.

And Matt Yglesias says that Trump is causing a surge in support for anything that Trump opposes.


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16 Responses to “Elections matter less than you think”

  1. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    5. October 2017 at 11:33

    This parallels thinking I’ve long had, but that gets more emphasis from me lately. People need to stop focusing on just winning the next election cycle or two and actually try to convince others their perspectives are correct. Even more radically, people might want to start listening to what people who disagree actually have to say, without the filter of their preconceptions.

    We’re seeing see-saw policy now in the White House. Executive orders undo predecessor’s executive orders, which will probably themselves be undone when the other party wins the White House. And if Republicans were successful at repealing Obamacare, what would prevent Democrats from passing Medicare for All the next time they control the three branches of government? Most Americans now seem to want some government guarantee of minimum healthcare coverage.

    McCain is very right. Congress needs to largely return to regular order and big, complex, controversial legislation should be developed on a bipartisan basis.

    I fear however, that given demographic trends that will continue to become less favorable for Republicans, more Republicans will favor authoritarianism to try to stave off what they histrionically see as existential threats.

  2. Gravatar of Christian List Christian List
    5. October 2017 at 12:53


    A Fox News poll in late September found the number of people who favor deporting illegal immigrants working in the United States had halved since the summer of 2015, with a staggering 83 to 14 margin in favor of a path to citizenship.

    A really staggering margin. But I trust polls more when they are somewhat coherent with the uncensored comments below the article. And in this case there’s no coherence at all, in over 1500 comments.

  3. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    5. October 2017 at 14:04

    Black Lives Matter is a menace more generally. http://lorenzo-thinkingoutaloud.blogspot.com.au/2017/10/black-lives-matter-and-destruction-of.html

  4. Gravatar of Benjamin Cole Benjamin Cole
    5. October 2017 at 19:49

    Elections matter?

    Well…

    After JFK was elected (1960), the Joints Chiefs of Staff repeatedly optioned, even advocated, a first nuclear strike on the Soviet Union, usually in connection to Cuba. A nuclear war was considered a viable option at the time.

    We will never know if Richard Nixon would have taken the bait.

    After 9/11, Bush decided on the occupation of two whole nations, Afghanistan and Iraq. Evidently, these are permanent occupations, probably counter-productive, at mind-boggling expense.

    Would Gore have done the same?

    Many people cite Ronald Reagan as having permanent and positive effects on US economic and tax policy.

    Bill Clinton did ace work on the economy, and it showed.

    I think elections matter.

  5. Gravatar of Matt Waters Matt Waters
    5. October 2017 at 19:50

    In Tillerson’s defense, we haven’t had to actually work with the guy. I’d have to imagine Trump is one of the worst bosses to work for. The State Department also depends on the President’s personal actions more than any other department. Messaging to foreign governments cannot be delegated.

  6. Gravatar of JLK JLK
    5. October 2017 at 20:48

    Mergers don’t matter either, as long as the market is contestable. Building codes don’t matter either, if you have competent electricians doing the wiring. And elections don’t matter, as long as people who want power try to win them.

  7. Gravatar of Mike D Mike D
    6. October 2017 at 05:44

    Does Tillerson have Trump Derangement Syndrome too maybe?

  8. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    6. October 2017 at 07:23

    @Mike D: so any opposition to Trump is TDS? What if he is actually a moron (politically)? Was every negative thing said about Obama ODS?

  9. Gravatar of Major.Freedom Major.Freedom
    6. October 2017 at 09:38

    The phrases “less than you think”, and “more than you think”, are conceptually meaningless without an explanation of exactly what is being thought.

  10. Gravatar of bill bill
    6. October 2017 at 14:51

    If a particular President raises the probability of nuclear war from say 1% to 2%, then I disagree. That’s more than I would have thought.

  11. Gravatar of bill bill
    6. October 2017 at 14:54

    On a related note, use of nuclear weapons should obviously require a declaration of war. ie, this power should not be in the hands of any single individual or small group.

  12. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    6. October 2017 at 15:37

    And Matt Yglesias says that Trump is causing a surge in support for anything that Trump opposes.

    Sadly, this is very true, and more proof of the President’s incompetence.

    Sumner: take this hint: nothing that happens on a college campus ever has effects outside a college campus. When Germany locks up political prisoners, you call it the leader of the free world. When ignoramuses demonstrate on college campuses, you call it the end of free speech.

    I don’t believe Tillerson would have the temerity to insult the President.

  13. Gravatar of Steve F Steve F
    7. October 2017 at 07:27

    The seeming discord between Trump and staff is deliberate. Looking “crazy” is one of the most valuable assets for a negotiator.

  14. Gravatar of Jerry Brown Jerry Brown
    8. October 2017 at 20:42

    ssumner
    26. November 2015 at 08:42

    Travis, I’m saying Trump would be worse than anyone, and I’m including all 320 million Americans. I’m saying he’s the worst of the lot. Since Cruz is one of the other 320 million Americans, obviously he’s less bad than Trump. I’d prefer the random inmate in Supermax prisons to Trump.

    I still agree with that.

  15. Gravatar of Mark Mark
    10. October 2017 at 23:23

    Scott Freedlander:
    “This parallels thinking I’ve long had, but that gets more emphasis from me lately. People need to stop focusing on just winning the next election cycle or two and actually try to convince others their perspectives are correct. Even more radically, people might want to start listening to what people who disagree actually have to say, without the filter of their preconceptions.”

    Listening to what people who disagree have to say is rarely a rewarding experience, when much of what they have to say is insults and self-serving anecdotes. It’s a mistake to think that most people actually want to “just get along” in their heart of hearts. The adversarial narrative is practically the whole point of political discourse, it’s what keeps people entertained and engaged. And at this point I’m convinced nearly all calls for civility or mutual understanding are insincere.

    Devolution and federalism are, IMO, the closest thing to a solution to escalating strife. We Americans really need to come to terms with the fact that we don’t really like each other, and never will, that the things that divide are very real and fundamental, not just ‘misunderstanding each other’s point of view.’ So let’s localize governance so people can live in the kind of society, on a sub-national scale, that they would more or less like to live in, without needing to force everyone else along for the ride.

  16. Gravatar of Mark Mark
    10. October 2017 at 23:25

    “Meanwhile, Black Lives Matter attempts to push more people into the Trump camp:”

    Some would say attacking free speech is a bad thing in and of itself, not just because it might push people toward Trump.

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