Did Trump reshape the GOP?

Or did a reshaped GOP create Trump?  Harry Enten had a post back in 2014 that now seems prophetic:

Something Funny Happened In Iowa, And It May Hurt Democrats In 2016

Republican Sen.-elect Joni Ernst easily won her race in Iowa last Tuesday, beating Democrat Bruce Braley by 8.5 percentage points. Her victory wasn’t shocking, but its size was (to everyone except pollster Ann Selzer, that is). The final FiveThirtyEight projection had Ernst winning by just 1.5 percentage points.

What the heck happened?

Here’s one explanation: White voters in Iowa without a college degree have shifted away from the Democratic Party. And if that shift persists, it could have a big effect on the presidential race in 2016, altering the White House math by eliminating the Democratic edge in the electoral college.

This is kind of complicated, so pay attention.  Back in 2012, the Electoral College favored the Dems:

In 2012, the states combining for 272 electoral votes were more Democratic than the nation. Using a uniform swing, Republicans would have needed to win the national popular vote that year by about 1.5 points to have won Colorado (the tipping-point state) and the electoral college.

This is why a 3% or 4% lead for Obama in 2012 was far more solid than the same lead for Clinton.  Romney would have had to win the popular vote by about 1.5% in order to win the electoral college, whereas Trump might lose by 1% and still win the Electoral College:

When we take Iowa and its six electoral votes out of the Democratic column, the math changes: The Democratic edge in the electoral college virtually disappears. . . .

That, of course, does not mean that Republicans are going to win Iowa in 2016, let alone the presidency. We don’t know whom the nominees for either party will be. And the shift in Iowa could reverse itself.

People often get confused by this issue, as they look at states that are close in the polls right now, whereas they should be looking at states that would be close if the popular vote were tied.  While the Electoral College clearly favors Trump right now, he’ll probably lose the election, as he’ll lose the popular vote by more than 1%. But if the popular vote is roughly a tie, Trump will likely win.

It turns out that not just in Iowa, but in many other states the GOP has been gaining ground among less educated white voters, for some period of time.  I think it’s a mistake to suggest that Trump is drawing disaffected whites into the GOP, rather disaffected whites have been moving that way for years (Romney won West Virginia by 27%) and instead candidates are now popping up to reflect the new reality of the GOP—a white nationalist populist party.  It’s not just Hillary who thinks that half the GOP are deplorable, I’m pretty sure Jeb and Mitt feel the same way.

This Will Jordan tweet is kind of interesting:

screen-shot-2016-11-06-at-11-29-15-amWhatever was driving working class whites toward the GOP in 2014-15 was also driving working class Hispanics towards the GOP.  But then something happened in 2016.  Maybe that something was that the GOP made it very clear that while they were the party of the working class, only white working class voters were welcome.

If the GOP had nominated someone that appealed to Hispanics, say someone with moderate views on immigration, who speaks Spanish and has a Mexican wife, just imagine how that candidate would be doing in Nevada and Florida, given Hillary’s extreme unpopularity.

PS.  Wouldn’t it be ironic if America’s first black president were followed by America’s first white president?

PPS.  I really hate the “shy Trump voter” label.  Trump does not appeal to shy people, he appeals to bullies.  The correct term is the “ashamed Trump voter.”  Ray Lopez explains why:

Another factor not much commented about: who will admit to a pollster that they are for Trump? It’s like admitting you’re a racist.

Here’s my question–why should anyone care what the intellectual elite thinks?  I favor near laissez-faire capitalism, which makes me a meanie in the eyes of most campus intellectuals.  Do you think I cared what they thought of me?  Why should I, as long as I stand up for what I think is right?  Trump supporters shouldn’t be so ashamed. If they really believe in him then say it loud and proud, and don’t worry what others think.

PPPS.  Here’s one issue where Trump is right, and Slate.com won’t even give him credit:

So this is kind of cute. While most of us were tearing our hair out over the FBI and Hillary Clinton’s emails last weekend, Donald Trump’s campaign quietly released a plan to privatize new infrastructure development in the United States. I know, that’s not very sexy on the surface. But given that the man might be president come Tuesday, it seems worth remarking upon. Because it could mean we’ll all be paying to drive on more roads built for profit.

Apparently Slate doesn’t know that toll roads are now regarded as a good idea among smart progressives.  But then their smartest progressive moved to Vox.com.

PPPPS:  Trump finishes his campaign as classy as he staged it, with an alt-right ad targeting three people in an international conspiracy of financial-types, who all “just happen” to be Jewish:

Minnesota Sen. Al Franken on Sunday called a new advertisement for Donald Trump’s campaign “something of a German shepherd whistle” designed to appeal to his supporters in the so-called alt-right.

The TV spot warns of the influence of “those who control the levers of power in Washington” and “global special interests,” and it raised eyebrows among observers who said it contains anti-Semitic overtones. As CNN’s Jake Tapper noted to Franken on Sunday morning on “State of the Union,” commentators have pointed out that it targets three public figures who are Jewish — billionaire George Soros, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

Maybe St. Bernard whistle would be more accurate.  Or Great Dane.  Or whistle best heard by people with tinfoil hat receptors.


Tags:

 
 
 

56 Responses to “Did Trump reshape the GOP?”

  1. Gravatar of Kevin Erdmann Kevin Erdmann
    6. November 2016 at 12:00

    I think it helps to think of Trump supporters as the current hippies. In the 60s hippies rose up as a reaction to conservative fundamentalism. Today, the ascendant fundamentalism is progressive. Conservative fundamentalism came from the churches, so the hippies came out of the universities. Progressives e fundamentalism comes from the universities, so the new hippies come from the working class.

    Think of how you would have reacted to hippies if they were associated with less educated working class kids – if kids getting high and having sex in the mud at Woodstock or protesting Vietnam had done it without the status of education. I am certain that being at Woodstock wouldn’t be something people would brag about today. We would have been appalled and afraid of them.

    Today we have a bunch of hippies who aren’t college educated. This is how that makes us feel.

  2. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    6. November 2016 at 12:40

    Kevin Erdman: like it 🙂

    Scott: The Republicans were born out of finessing nativism by adopting anti-slavery: the original Republican Party was where nativism went to die.

    Realignment Republicanism finessed Southern racism by pushing anti-communism, low-tax, socially conservatism, pro (private rather than free) enterprise: the “Southern Strategy” Republican Party was where Southern racism went to die.

    That strategy relied on purging the inconvenient Right. George Hawley has written a great study of that.
    https://www.amazon.com/Right-Wing-Critics-American-Conservatism-George/dp/0700621938

    Progressivists go on and on about the “Southern Strategy” as the original racial sin of the Republican Party because (1) they don’t like what the Republicans changed the Southern political conversation to and (2) they have become race/identity obsessed.

    The trouble is, a two-Party system is a dynamic system, representing coalitions assembled around rhetoric programs in both conjunction and opposition.

    As the Democrats have so throughly adopted postmodern identity progressivism, they have set in train the dynamics of identity politics, which is tribal politics. Since “bad whites” (i.e. all whites who don’t accept progressivism) have become the repository of blame for, well, just about everything, then that creates the politics of identity-pushback. Hence The Donald.

    Hence also the appalling choice which is also the dynamics of identity-tribalism politics — people vote for appalling candidates because, otherwise, their tribe is cut out of the goodies. (Which includes standing within the polity.)

    The modernist left extolls the working class. (How much their policies actually help the working class, another issue, but that is always an issue for any political program.)

    Postmodern identity progressivism has a program of reducing the importance of the resident working class, either absolutely or relatively, in every respect (demographically, culturally, economically, politically) and then enjoying, and rallying around, the righteous indignation they feel when said working class notices and arcs up.

    (Brexit anyone? A vote against internationalisation–creating supranational structures–rather than, with the exception of migration, globalisation–expanding cross-border flows of goods, services, information and people–but progressivists have managed to sell the story that the former is a version of the latter when it really isn’t.)

    None of this is a good political dynamic to get into …

  3. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    6. November 2016 at 13:04

    Astute point (as usual), Lorenzo.

    Trump’s plan for infrastructure building and maintenance isn’t quite right; they don’t need no stinking’ tax credits. They only need to offer opportunities for engineering and construction firms to draw up plans for new roads and bridges (and water projects). The way the French Communists did it to get the Millau Viaduct built;

    http://www.abelard.org/france/viaduct-de-millau.php

    If there’s a profit opportunity, they will come to build it. Which is reason enough to hope Trump wins. As ignorant as he is of economic theory, he’s not completely lacking in practicality. Like Obama is.

  4. Gravatar of Patrick R. Sullivan Patrick R. Sullivan
    6. November 2016 at 13:07

    BTW, the way the Millau Viaduct got built is the same way NYC got its first subway built. By the financier August Belmont one hundred years earlier; a profit seeking, entrepreneurial venture.

  5. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    6. November 2016 at 14:30

    Yes, Trump has reshaped the GOP. He has made it more protectionist, less Russophobic, and more immigration-restrictionist than it was before.

    Jeb Bush would have done terribly in both Florida and Nevada, as GOP voters in both states picked Trump with over 40% of the vote in the GOP primaries, so there was no way for Jeb Bush to have become the nominee without a convention coup, which would have been rejected by most Trump supporters as illegitimate. Nevada also has a smaller percentage of college-educated residents than Alabama, so it’s prime Trump anti-elitist territory.

    BTW, I would have supported Clinton over Jeb Bush, just because Bush was a worse president than Clinton.

    Jeb Bush would also be unable to win Ohio.

    “Trump finishes his campaign as classy as he staged it, with an alt-right ad targeting three people in an international conspiracy of financial-types, who all “just happen” to be Jewish:”

    -Which includes colored people and could be confused for a Bernie ad. It’s not alt-right except in the Kasich-voting Massachusetts suburbs. Ask any alt-righter.

    “Trump supporters shouldn’t be so ashamed. If they really believe in him then say it loud and proud, and don’t worry what others think.”

    -I agree.

    “Wouldn’t it be ironic if America’s first black president were followed by America’s first white president?”

    -What?

  6. Gravatar of Kevin Erdmann Kevin Erdmann
    6. November 2016 at 14:39

    Scott, did you actually watch that ad? That a large number of people could watch that ad, and the first thing they think is that it is anti-Semitic, that is exactly the sort of fundamentalism I am talking about. We’re in gay teletubby territory here.

  7. Gravatar of B Cole B Cole
    6. November 2016 at 15:44

    1. Limit supply of housing through zoning.
    2. Call for open borders.
    3. Run large trade deficits so foreigners buy a lot of housing.
    4. Define losers in this scenario as populist nationalists.

    Yes the approach synopsis is simplified.

    Add tight-money to suffocate economy….

  8. Gravatar of A Definite Beta Guy A Definite Beta Guy
    6. November 2016 at 15:45

    I don’t see how Jeb! could’ve beaten Hillary if he couldn’t even beat Kasich. Another Bush V Clinton would’ve destroyed faith in the Republic as much as Trump and the Clinton email scandals, at least among normal people.

    Why not just run Rubio if we’re playing hypothetical?

  9. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    6. November 2016 at 17:29

    I was almost with you… the Spanish speaker with a Colombian wife would certainly have won. Even the Spanish speaker with a 7th Day Adventist wife might have won. But the dynastic candidate would have made Hillary seem like an outsider in an outsider year.

    The anti-Semitic accusations are beyond parody. Is Liz Warren an anti-Semite, because she bashes Rubin, Blankfein, etc. This is the narrative the left wants: The left can criticize bankers, because they CARE, whereas the right can’t because NAZIS!

  10. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    6. November 2016 at 17:42

    Kevin, I doubt most Trump voters have any idea what’s going on in “the universities”.

    Lorenzo, Interesting analysis.

    Patrick, I agree that the tax credits are not needed.

    Kevin, My first reaction was fascist, then anti-semitic. It’s the sort of ad the Nazis would have run in the 1930s, if they’d had TV back then.

    It’s basically an alt-right ad, from beginning to end—those who can’t see it probably are not familiar with the alt-right’s talking points. Do you think the average American has any idea who George Soros is? Seriously? This ad is pure dog whistle. The alt right is a bunch of conspiracy nuts who think an international Jewish conspiracy of financiers is controlling everything. Gee, what German had the same views back in 1933?

  11. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    6. November 2016 at 17:43

    Here’s Steve back in 1933:

    “Gee, FDR can criticize bankers and it’s OK, but when Hitler criticizes bankers it’s not OK.”

  12. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    6. November 2016 at 17:53

    Lorenzo has a knack for saying with much greater articulation things similar to what I believe.

    The Democrats are super-coalition that is artificially glued together by identity politics, and enforced by the shaming of media and academics.

    It’s not surprising that working class whites are gradually becoming more Republican. White women have no business being Democrats, except that a handful of elite white women feel they have something to prove (status), and the language of patriarchal oppression is useful for Ivy types to clear off the ladder ahead of them in cutthroat rat race type occupations.

    Roe v Wade, Equal Pay, and the sisterhood of “there’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help women [become president]” (Gloria Steinem) are the moral shaming tools used to enforce women Democratic voting patterns. It’s not surprising that working class women, who face fixed hourly wages and unstable husbands/sons, are the first to defect from this, while networking-dependent elite women keep up the charade.

    Over time, other coalitions will defect. Chinese who oppose affirmative action? Latinos who have family values? Blacks who are displaced by the same forces as working class whites? Racial coalitions are harder to break than class/gender coalitions, because they don’t talk across boundaries as much. But it’s pretty easy to convert a woman if the men who love her are suffering. Hence why “uneducated” are more persuadable than academic networking-dependent.

  13. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    6. November 2016 at 18:11

    Don’t underestimate the power of academic networking, plus assortative marriage driving the political schism. The diversity index of free thought has really tanked hard (but the working class doesn’t have this problem).

    Look how many media executive are married to Democratic political operatives. Or Clinton lawyers, married to FBI 2nd in command. Or college professor, married to political lobbyist, etc.

    Party discipline used to be enforced when Fat Tony threw bricks through Scabs’ windows in the dark of night.

    Now party discipline is enforced at Harvard Reunions, when the whispers go out “Did you hear John Smith is secretly a Republican?” “Yeah let’s not hire him; bad for our image.” “Peter Thiel?” “Radioactive!” “His husband?” “Stay away from him, too!”

  14. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    6. November 2016 at 18:16

    Here’s Steve back in 1933:

    “Gee, FDR can criticize bankers and it’s OK, but when Hitler criticizes bankers it’s not OK.”

    That escalated fast. Godwin’s Law time.

  15. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    6. November 2016 at 18:26

    There’s also an cultural schism in the Republican Party.

    McMullin/Romney types run around saying Trump supporters are bigots.

    But some Trump supporters think McMullin/Romney are bigots for advocating open discrimination against gays.

    In the end, both sides lose as both are perceived as bigots. A house divided falls… And the Democrats are the Party of Inclusion, unless you like freedom of thought.

  16. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    6. November 2016 at 19:23

    “It’s basically an alt-right ad, from beginning to end—those who can’t see it probably are not familiar with the alt-right’s talking points.”

    -An alt-right ad would not have included non-Whites at all, much less three of them in a row, among its favored people. That is fundamentally un-alt-right.

    I’ve been following the alt-right since late 2014. I know what I’m talking about. You, Sumner, don’t.

    “Do you think the average American has any idea who George Soros is? Seriously? This ad is pure dog whistle. The alt right is a bunch of conspiracy nuts who think an international Jewish conspiracy of financiers is controlling everything. Gee, what German had the same views back in 1933?”

    -No, it holds that Jewish genetics lead to subversive characteristics. It’s not a conspiracy theory.

    In any case, Trump is backed by frickin’ Sheldon Adelson, the mouthpiece of Likud. How much more pro-Semitic can you get?

    For God’s sake, BERNIE COULD HAVE MADE THE SAME FRICKIN’ AD WITHOUT CHANGING A WORD!

  17. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    6. November 2016 at 19:28

    “But some Trump supporters think McMullin/Romney are bigots for advocating open discrimination against gays.”

    -McMullin himself is probably gay. He supports the Obergeffell decision, which any constitutional conservative opposes.

  18. Gravatar of Matthew Waters Matthew Waters
    6. November 2016 at 20:12

    “Gee, FDR can criticize bankers and it’s OK, but when Hitler criticizes bankers it’s not OK.”

    The difference is FDR ultimately implemented real reforms such as the SEC and FDIC. I do support the SEC as something that greatly reduces information costs. And if he followed through on leaving the gold standard, it would have ended the Great Depression. It would have been “Panic of 1929” rather than the Depression.

    From personal experience though, those who cry about some vague international “globalist” conspiracy of bankers will simply not listen to anything approaching a fact, especially on monetary policy. I don’t really get it. There is some psychological reason for the vague, impersonal and wrong conspiracy to trump anything fact-based and concrete action.

  19. Gravatar of Matthew Waters Matthew Waters
    6. November 2016 at 20:18

    Ugh, my post comes off like I was dense and thought Scott was making a serious point that I was disputing. Of course I wasn’t doing that.

    I’m just saying I approach issues with the mindset of “ok, what’s going on here.” Whether it’s explicitly anti-semitic or not, Zero Hedge and now Trump’s dark hint of “globalist” conspiracies make no sense to me. Why do people latch on to something so vague with so much certainty?

  20. Gravatar of Anon39 Anon39
    6. November 2016 at 20:26

    Dr. Sumner,

    I loathe Trump. That being said, I view this development as a consequence of the further “Mandarization” of our economy. We have a formal economy, with rules and background checks (we throw away applications for any arrest record or drug issues), credential centric hiring process, and we have an informal economy with cash payments and no one cares (illegal immigrants). My hypothesis is that the white uneducated class is getting destroyed in the new economy. You can’t decide to turn your life around and start a business, or a pushcart, or sell hot dogs on the street. The government literally won’t let you even cut hair. And we manufacturers won’t hire you for lawsuit reasons. But honestly, white means nothing, lets drill it down more.

    Scotch-Irish people apparently can’t hack it in a mandarin economy. They have either a cultural or genetic disposition that resists conformity. I don’t understand why this hasn’t been front page New York Times news. This is a revolt of a specific white ethnic group, they make up an outsized porportion of our military, police, firefighters, alcoholics, and unemployed. The weird ironic part is, the same elite descended from elite Britons is calling them deplorable again. Hundreds of years later, they still despise them. 200 years later, the Anglos still sneer, laugh, and wretch in disgust at the Scots, even in a different country.

    What that says about genetics I’d rather not contemplate.

  21. Gravatar of Don Don
    6. November 2016 at 20:27

    I am not really into identity politics, but I watched the ad and it seems to be anti-China if anything.

    There is still a lot of Bush fatigue. That name is poison for another 20 years. Be patient George P.

  22. Gravatar of Scott Freelander Scott Freelander
    6. November 2016 at 21:17

    Lorenzo,

    I think those of you how think there’s any such thing as politics without identity politics are living in a dream world. Identity matters, and there are both moral and immoral stands to be taken on the basis of identity politics.

    There are thoughts that when expressed are completely unacceptable and there always have been and always should be the potential for severe consequences for those who spew socially or politically destructive rhetoric, or otherwise behave in ways that threaten domestic peace, fairness, or prosperity.

  23. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    7. November 2016 at 01:32

    Scott,

    Dr. Phil Mason (AKA “thunderf00t”), the guy who did those Brexit videos you liked has finally done one on Trump and Clinton.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2w7dk_HocY

  24. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    7. November 2016 at 01:47

    Ben Howe of RedState just recently finished his documentary about Trump called “The Sociopath”:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIL0w4BkHQU

  25. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    7. November 2016 at 05:08

    Sumner’s twisted cart-before-horse logic: “people often get confused by this issue, as they look at states that are close in the polls right now, whereas they should be looking at states that would be close if the popular vote were tied. While the Electoral College clearly favors Trump right now, he’ll probably lose the election, as he’ll lose the popular vote by more than 1%. But if the popular vote is roughly a tie, Trump will likely win”. Which is a fancy way of confusing cause and effect. Sumner is saying: ‘due to round-off and counting error you can win an election in the Electorial College even if you lose the popular vote, like Bush did in 2000’ but he tries to make a ‘fancy law’ out of this; similar to his ‘money growth precedes economic growth’ monetarism fallacy.

    Sumner: “Ray Lopez explains why” – indeed. I wonder whether I should become a guest blogger and set some of the monetarist cultists here straight.

    Ray Lopez, never a good word for anybody but always spot on.

    @Anon39 – a page of history is worth a volume of logic as US jurist Holmes said. Today’s poor white fright is nothing more than Luddite-ism from yesteryear or William Jennings Bryant’s plea for soft money on behalf of the disappearing farmer from the turn of the last century. Bryant a high water mark for monetarism too, when people did not realize money is short term neutral. plus ça change…

  26. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    7. November 2016 at 05:24

    One reason Trump may surprise: (Vox.com) “Survey response rates are lower. Not too many decades ago, quality polls had response rates over 50 percent; now a survey is lucky to get 10 percent participation. ” – that 90% too ignorant or embarrassed to respond to a survey may vote for Trump.

  27. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 06:14

    Jeb Bush is not an advocate of immigration control. He’s made some noises about chain-migration. That’s it.

  28. Gravatar of mbka mbka
    7. November 2016 at 06:20

    Scott,

    you may want to have a look at this viewpoint – fits your narrative, mostly on how the Democrats have become the party of the “elites” and the Republicans have become the working class party. The writer is George Friedman of Stratfor. To him the redesign of the Dems is more serious than the one of the GOP btw.

    http://www.mauldineconomics.com/this-week-in-geopolitics/the-reinvention-of-the-democratic-and-republican-parties

  29. Gravatar of Michael Michael
    7. November 2016 at 06:28

    “Gee, FDR can criticize bankers and it’s OK, but when Hitler criticizes bankers it’s not OK.”
    https://www.amazon.com/Three-New-Deals-Reflections-Roosevelts/dp/0312427433

    Maybe it was NOT OK for FDR after all. But it’s not the rhetoric that makes Trump bad, isn’t it? It’s not the dog whistles, either. The bad is quite out in the open:
    – if you want to take the way of least resistance
    – if it’s always other people’s fault, because they’re not human, but evil
    – if you stand by your Dunning Kruger syndrome, nay, are proud of it
    AND
    – if there’s no-one to (credibly) keep you in check
    THEN you’ll make that grab
    (except that it will be only vicariously, in reality, the demagogue will)

    https://www.amazon.com/Revolt-Masses-Jos%C3%A9-Ortega-Gasset/dp/0393310957/

    I want to get on record that whoever wins tomorrow, the damage is already done. Everyone can see that the US is under siege from within. The old wolf has missed his prey. Let’s hope no-one makes use of it (this time)

  30. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    7. November 2016 at 07:57

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441850/donald-trump-voters-defensible-reasons-2016

  31. Gravatar of Jeff Jeff
    7. November 2016 at 08:49

    @Anon39, so people who “have either a cultural or genetic disposition that resists conformity” also “make up an outsized proportion of our military, police, (and) firefighters”? These occupations are some of the most regimented jobs there are, definitely not for “non-conformists” who can’t follow orders.

  32. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    7. November 2016 at 08:56

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/11/07/asian-stocks-bounce-after-fbi-clears-clinton-over-emails/93412244/

  33. Gravatar of GOP Will Learn the Lesson From Trump's Loss | GOP Will Learn the Lesson From Trump's Loss |
    7. November 2016 at 09:04

    […] Did Trump reshape the GOP? […]

  34. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    7. November 2016 at 09:07

    -McMullin himself is probably gay. He supports the Obergeffell decision, which any constitutional conservative opposes.

    Anyone else notice a repeated pattern in comment themes over the past few months here?
    ————–
    ?

  35. Gravatar of Mike Rulle Mike Rulle
    7. November 2016 at 09:27

    I believe you wrote last week that blogging about politics lowers the IQ by 30 points. After reading your Trumpian anti-semite Jewish trifecta comment, I must decrease the IQ points by double. When you tossed in the “TrumpHitler” idendity,your IQ declined another 30 pts. Silver has given TrumpHitler a 35% chance. Given the oddness of all the white people you discuss ( another 30 IQ points down), I am starting to believe he might actually win. Whoever wins will be deemed illigitimate,just like Bushitler. I think your comments referenced zbove are grossly irresponsible and stupid.

  36. Gravatar of brendan brendan
    7. November 2016 at 09:31

    Scott – it’d be helpful if you made clear your principles on when it is and isn’t OK to generalize critically about a group. What’s key: truth, consequences, or history?

    I go with truth.

    Jewish people have contributed more per capita Solovian growth than any other – and it’s not even close. Probably half my favorite books and movies were written or directed by Jews. I have many Jewish friends and even 2nd degree relatives.

    But do they have no negative tendencies? Name another group – and I’ll show you their biases. Criticize and shame their biases, and maybe they’ll improve. That’s the story of white hicks.

    Jews tend to lack empathy for white conservative middle Americans. It’s not hard to understand where this bias comes from – but it’s real.

    Do you deny that’s true, statistically?

    Or is it true but inconsequential?

    What are the principles here? Obviously calling Mexicans rapists is wrong. But are polite, plausible criticisms of minorities or Jews allowed? Could you get away with them in class? Is it possible your personal incentives are preventing you from empathizing with the many folks who pre-Trump thought they saw the world much they way you do?

  37. Gravatar of Tom Brown Tom Brown
    7. November 2016 at 10:50

    This is a revolt of a specific white ethnic group, they make up an outsized porportion of our military, police, firefighters, alcoholics, and unemployed.

    Do you see any movement on that front into the heroine addiction racket as well?

  38. Gravatar of msgkings msgkings
    7. November 2016 at 10:50

    @Brendan: the reason your attempt to find bad traits in Jews as a group (or even to assign them good ones) is odious is because those traits are non-generalizable. You can’t meet a Jew and assume them without being racist. Also, ‘Jews’ don’t ‘lack empathy’ for white hicks, but urbanites OFTEN (not always) do and most Jews (but not all) are urban. But it’s not the Jewish part that lacks empathy for hicks. Not all black people play basketball, and not all Asians are good at math.

    Why is it so hard to just put that kind of rhetoric aside. Even the Sailerist ‘noticers’ aren’t adding anything to the discussion. It doesn’t take a genius to ‘notice’ that the NBA is disproportionately black, that the Fed is disproportionately Jewish, etc. So what? There are perfectly good non-racist reasons for that and so much else that gets talked about when it comes to groups of people.

  39. Gravatar of Cameron Cameron
    7. November 2016 at 12:51

    E. Harding,

    So your view is that the GOP never had a chance in this presidential election?

  40. Gravatar of engineer engineer
    7. November 2016 at 13:24

    “Scotch-Irish people apparently can’t hack it in a mandarin economy. They have either a cultural or genetic disposition that resists conformity”

    Having primary Scotch-Irish blood…Yes, I would prefer to live in a cabin out in the woods, grow my own food and wine, hunt my wild turkey for thanksgiving, paint my face blue and re-enact the battle of Sterling Bridge on the weekends and play outlawed tunes on my bagpipes……but unfortunately I need to live with you bunch of Mandarins…

    Hmm, I just read where Hillary got Chelsea’s friend a great contract. The Long Term Strategy Group report to the Pentagon was called “On the Nature of Americans as a Warlike People,” which said “the United States will continue to use war as an instrument of state policy.”

    The report concludes that the United States will likely continue to seek war as a policy, since many in government descended from the Scots-Irish, who tend to get into fights.

    Wow….now my “people” are to “blame” for the US being a “warlike” people…I am really starting to feel like a disadvantaged minority.

  41. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 13:32

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/438951/evan-mcmullin-republican-party-establishment-third-party-candidate-conservatives

    If you want people to engage in expressive voting, hand ’em a nice glass of Jack Daniels, not a pitcher of warm spit.

  42. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 13:39

    Anyone else notice a repeated pattern in comment themes over the past few months here?

    The man’s a 40 year old childless bachelor Mormon. He is one eccentric piece of work.

    His running mate, Mindy, is another Capitol Hill krill currently employed running a perplexing NGO of obscure good works. You can see that here.

    https://empoweredwomen.org/our-manifesto/

    She’s not his girlfriend, btw.

  43. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 13:43

    I think those of you how think there’s any such thing as politics without identity politics are living in a dream world.

    There is politics without identity politics if questions of identity are not at issue. Which is why diversity is not strength.

  44. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 13:46

    In the 60s hippies rose up as a reaction to conservative fundamentalism.

    This is insane. Do you fancy stoners in Haight-Ashbury or the East Village or commune dwellers in Oregon were all refugees from Tulsa and Orange County?

  45. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 13:54

    We have a formal economy, with rules and background checks (we throw away applications for any arrest record or drug issues), credential centric hiring process, and we have an informal economy with cash payments and no one cares (illegal immigrants). My hypothesis is that the white uneducated class is getting destroyed in the new economy. You can’t decide to turn your life around and start a business, or a pushcart, or sell hot dogs on the street. The government literally won’t let you even cut hair.

    The credential-centric hiring process has been stoked by the advent of employment discrimination law. Get rid of employment discrimination law, and you’ll have a more free-form process with less time consuming and expensive modes of sorting the labor market. It’s unlikely that ex-convicts have ever had anything but a struggle getting back into the workforce, but they manage. It’s harder to lose your past than it used to be, but missing years on a job application have long been a red flag. Licensure for barbers has been a feature of the political economy for about a century. People have their irritations and disappointments. It’s hard to find any sizable group being ‘destroyed’ by public policy. A great many small communities have been badly injured by sectoral shifts and some 3d and 4th tier cities have been suffering for a generation, of course. It’s hard to address those shifts without causing more problems.

  46. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 13:59

    an alt-right ad targeting three people in an international conspiracy of financial-types, who all “just happen” to be Jewish:

    The three people in question would be a hedge fund gazillionaire who has financed the Democratic Party noise machine for about 15 years now, the governor-general of the central bank, and the chief executive of a large securities firm with political connections up the wazoo.

  47. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 14:02

    Kevin, My first reaction was fascist, then anti-semitic. It’s the sort of ad the Nazis would have run in the 1930s, if they’d had TV back then.

    Your fundamental problem is that there is no one whose opinion you care about who tells you when you’re talking rot.

  48. Gravatar of ssumner ssumner
    7. November 2016 at 14:24

    mbka, It probably makes more sense to view the GOP as the white party, rather than the working class party. They also attract white professionals, but scare away black and Hispanic working class voters.

    Mike Rulle, At least my IQ is not so low that I don’t know how to read, and think I said Trump was like Hitler!

    Brendan, Politeness is always a good place to start.

    Art, You said:

    “Your fundamental problem is that there is no one whose opinion you care about who tells you when you’re talking rot.”

    Yup, that’s my problem. I wish someone would.

  49. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    7. November 2016 at 14:32

    “So your view is that the GOP never had a chance in this presidential election?”

    -My view is that the most electable, and probably the only electable, GOP candidates were Trump and Kasich. I’m still right.

  50. Gravatar of Art Deco Art Deco
    7. November 2016 at 15:11

    -My view is that the most electable, and probably the only electable, GOP candidates were Trump and Kasich. I’m still right.

    Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich polled better against HRC than did Trump. (IIRC, Sanders outpolled all of them). The irony is that both parties put forward their weakest general election candidate.

  51. Gravatar of Trump’s Final Appeal to the Voters Trump’s Final Appeal to the Voters
    7. November 2016 at 15:26

    […] Not to be outdone, Scott Sumner wrote: […]

  52. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    7. November 2016 at 16:33

    “Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich polled better against HRC than did Trump.”

    -This is true. But Cruz would have had a terrible electoral college position concentrated in very, very red areas and would have had near zero Democratic crossover appeal, and Rubio would have messed up the way he did in the primaries and would not have fired up the base the way Trump has, and would probably have performed more poorly than Trump in New Hampshire and Ohio.

  53. Gravatar of Ray Lopez Ray Lopez
    7. November 2016 at 16:41

    Headline: “Hitler’s wife’s knickers sold at auction” 7 November 2016

    It’s sad, sniff, sniff, but there’s a lot of sick people out there. I wonder how much Melania Trump’s underwear would go for? Sniff, sniff.

  54. Gravatar of Steve Steve
    7. November 2016 at 17:36

    Persuade with facts, not insults. This seems very very relevant!

    https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016-election-exposes-dark-side-tech/

    According to the Anti-Defamation League, there were 2.6 million anti-Semitic tweets sent between last August and this July, a whopping 60 percent of them in reply to journalists. But while this spike could easily be construed as a widespread increase in anti-Semitic sentiment, the survey also showed that just 1,600 accounts generated 68 percent of the tweets.

  55. Gravatar of E. Harding E. Harding
    7. November 2016 at 23:26

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hart%27s_Location,_New_Hampshire

    Just sayin’

  56. Gravatar of Lorenzo from Oz Lorenzo from Oz
    9. November 2016 at 03:10

    Patrick and Steve: thanks.

    Steve, you seem to have picked up the ball and run with it.

    Scott Freelander: “I think those of you how think there’s any such thing as politics without identity politics are living in a dream world.” We all have multiple identities–it is perfectly possible to have politics that do not assemble particular identities as trumps.

    As for always being unacceptable thoughts: not prescriptions that generate this level of fear, resentment and anger. Nor so many prominent folk being purged/harrassed, and at an accelerating rate.
    http://www.socialmatter.net/the-new-blacklist/

Leave a Reply