Why are Trumpistas so much nicer than Trumpian politicians?
We all know that Trump’s a bully. What many people don’t seem to know is that bullying is an important attribute of many Trump-like politicians. I’ll just provide a few examples here. Let’s start with a recent article in The Economist, discussing Swedish politics:
Many municipalities, like Gothenburg, are already in this situation. The city’s 13-member executive is split between right and left; the odd seat was won by the Sweden Democrats in 2014. They are shunned by other parties. Besides ideology, says David Lega, the city’s deputy mayor, there is a character issue: the Sweden Democrats’ council member was expelled from his party for allegedly bullying subordinates.
OK, that’s just an anecdote. But on the very same page of The Economist, there’s an article on Slovenia:
But the SDS has been unable to form a coalition. Many parties refused even to talk to it. Instead, five smaller centre-left parties banded together to form a minority government with outside support from the hard left. Other politicians justify their decision to exclude the SDS by arguing that Mr Jansa is a divisive bully. “When someone attacks us so personally and so aggressively, he should expect to see the results during negotiations,” says Vojmir Urlep, Mr Sarec’s economic adviser. Luka Mesec, of Levica, a leftist party, accuses the SDS of “scary anti-migrant discourse.”
OK, that’s just two anecdotes. But the most powerful figure in Italy’s new government (Salvini) is almost universally viewed as a Trump-like figure, and he’s also a bully. (In addition to being an overt racist and a fan of Mussolini. In other words he’s even worse than Trump.)
It’s also worth noting that Trump seems to despise polite leaders such as Obama, Trudeau and Merkel, whereas he’s drawn to leaders who are bullies, such as Duterte, Orban, Putin, etc.
However, I see no evidence that Trump voters are any less polite than Trump’s opponents. When I moved from an anti-Trump area (Boston) to a pro-Trump area (south Orange County), I immediately noticed that people were nicer, on average.) So why are Trumpian leaders such jerks?
One possibility is that Trumpistas have a more “tribal” view of the world. People who travel to regions dominated by tribalism, say Afghanistan, often remark on how the people they meet are incredibly generous and kind. This despite the fact that these societies are often tearing themselves apart with civil war.
Here’s a hypothesis. The global rise of right-wing authoritarian nationalism is not really about immigration, it’s about Islam. Consider the following regions, which have seen political developments that seem a bit “Trumpian”:
The USA, Europe, Russia, India, China, The Philippines, Burma, Thailand.
What do they have in common? The public worries about Islam.
Now think about countries that have not seen such developments (Argentina, New Zealand, South Korea, etc.)
The first two regions with Trumpian problems (USA and Europe) face immigration issues. Maybe Russia to a lesser extent. But in the remainder, immigration is less of an issue. On the other hand, Islam is a big issue in all of the countries in the first list. In each case, the majority of the population has a rather negative view of Muslims. In my view, that’s what’s driving the global rise of Trumpism. That causes even individually polite voters to support bullies—they want someone strong enough to fight against the perceived threat of Islam. (Yes, some Americans supported Trump for tax cuts or Supreme Court picks, but that’s not what got him the nomination.)
Burma is a particularly interesting case. In perhaps no other country in the world would you less expect a Trumpian leader. Burma’s leader is an almost universally revered Nobel Peace Prize winner. Her career is almost a textbook definition of liberalism. But the forces of anti-Islam in Burma are so strong that even she has turned into a right-wing authoritarian nationalist. If Burma is not safe, then nowhere is safe. Except, of course, for countries where Islam is not viewed as a threat (like Argentina, New Zealand and South Korea.) BTW, so much for the “great woman” theory of history. If Burma doesn’t refute that theory, I don’t know what will.
You may recall from high school that bullies are less likely to be intelligent than non-bullies. A new book by Bob Woodward confirms that even Trump’s closest aides regard him as an idiot. They see their job as protecting the country from his rash instincts:
The book is said to claim:
- One month after Trump became president, he asked Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford for plans for a preemptive strike on North Korea.
- After a chemical attack in April 2017 was tied to the Syrian regime and President Bashar al-Assad, Trump told Defense Secretary James Mattis that he wanted Assad assassinated, saying, “Let’s fucking kill him! Let’s go in.”
- During Trump’s practice session with his lawyers for a potential interview with special counsel Robert Mueller, he disastrously melted down — which led his then-attorney John Dowd to tell him, “Don’t testify. It’s either that or an orange jumpsuit.”
Much like Michael Wolff’s book Fire and Fury, the book portrays President Trump as detested and scorned by many of his top advisers, who are said to see themselves as working to protect the country from someone they see as ignorant and irresponsible.
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White House Chief of Staff John Kelly purportedly called Trump an “idiot” and “off the rails,” and said “we’re in Crazytown.”
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Mattis is described as telling associates that Trump acted like, and had the understanding of, “a fifth- or sixth-grader.”
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Former National Economic Council director Gary Cohn purportedly took trade-related documents off Trump’s desk to prevent him from signing them and causing crises.
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Dowd is described as believing Trump to be a “fucking liar.”
In fairness to Trump, he’s a bit better at noticing flaws in others:
Trump himself, meanwhile, is described insulting current or former aides such as Reince Priebus (“like a little rat”), H.R. McMaster (“like a beer salesman”), Jeff Sessions (“mentally retarded, he’s this dumb Southerner”), Wilbur Ross (“past your prime”), and Rudy Giuliani (“you’re like a little baby”).
The new Italian government is even more of a clown show than the Trump administration. (The ruling party was literally founded by a clown.) Because Italy has much weaker public finances than the US had when Trump took over, their crazy fiscal proposals threaten to cause a crisis, which might eventually blow the eurozone apart.
There’s another interesting trend in global Trumpism. In almost every case the populist movement started as a “liberal” party (in the international sense of favoring small government.) In some cases it was a new party (the AfD, etc.) In other cases they took over an existing party (the GOP). As far as I can tell, the movement against Islam was almost always associated with a move away from small government ideology in the realm of economic policy. These parties now favor high government spending. It’s not obvious to me why these two trends are connected, but they seem to be. I’d be interested in your thoughts. (This means Corbyn is not as far from Trump as many people assume. He’s a bigot who talks about going after the “fake news” media.)
I am not interested in your thoughts on whether I was right about Trump. The fact that his closest advisors have exactly the same view of Trump as I do seals the deal in my mind. Case closed. If you still can’t see it, then no amount of debating on my part will help you.
PS. McCain’s body wasn’t even cold before Lindsey Graham starting kowtowing to Trump. Sometimes these things just take one’s breath away.
PPS. Trump’s not the first bully to reach the Presidency, LBJ and FDR also qualify.