A couple of years ago I raised funds for two NGDP prediction markets, Hypermind and iPredict. The money for Hypermind all came from Valve CEO Gabe Newell. A larger amount of money was raised for iPredict, from about 15 people. Unfortunately, iPredict had to end its experiment after a brief run. For the past year I’ve being making inquiries about a refund, and it’s finally paid off. Here is the information we received from iPredict:
Here is how the donors can go about requesting a refund.
They should contact Iain Devon, Viclink Senior Account Manager, at email@example.com. Their donation has been held in NZ$ and will be refunded at the current USD/NZD exchange rate, which means they may receive less than their original donation due to change in exchange rates (assuming the donor wants to be refunded in US$). They should provide the details of the initial donation made, including date and value. Refunds will be issued via international bank transfer, so they should also be prepared to provide their bank account information.
I want to thank the people at
Wellington Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand. Their willingness to return the funds further cements New Zealand’s reputation as one of the least corrupt countries on Earth. If you forgot how much you donated, you might check your old emails to me. I believe all the donors emailed me and informed me of their intentions. I also probably have that info, if you need it.
During the period after iPredict failed, I vowed not to try to raise additional funds until the issue of refunds could be resolved. Now that a resolution seems imminent, it’s time to think about future plans for NGDP prediction markets. My inclination would be to go back to Hypermind, but with a bigger donation this time. I also feel like the annual market is the most macroeconomically useful, even though it is a long time to wait for a payoff. (Say a 2018:Q1 over 2017:Q1 contract). I believe we already have about $10,000 to work with, which is double what the annual market had back in 2015. More money could be raised. With Trump in office, there might be some interesting policy shocks which could impact the market (although it’s also quite possible that NGDP expectations are not greatly affected—either result would be interesting.) I’m also open to other markets, if someone has a suggestion.
PS. Thanks to my colleague Ben Klutsey for working with the iPredict people to arrange this refund.