The good news: Trump lies a lot
So we now find out that Trump did not predict the real estate crash:
In September of 2008, as markets tanked on Wall Street, the American financial crisis intensified and global economic panic spread, Donald Trump took to television with a message for the American people, and the message was: I told you so.
“If you remember two years ago when I was on your show,” Trump said to Larry King on CNN, “I predicted near depression.”
It wasn’t true. In fact, in the years preceding the Great Recession, in interviews with journalists, in promotional materials for his own businesses, and in his customary slew of TV appearances, Trump had said precisely the opposite—telling King, Cavuto and others that “the economy continues to be fairly robust,” “real estate is good all over,” “the real estate market is going to be very strong for a long time to come,” “I’ve been hearing about this bubble for so many years … but I haven’t seen it,” and “this boom is going to continue.”
. . .
In spite of his stated assurances that he was cash-flush—“I was in a very strong financial position,” he told POLITICO this week, declining to elaborate—he sued Deutsche Bank to try to get out of a $40-million portion of the construction loan that he had personally guaranteed, invoking a force majeure clause in the contract. It’s a phrase that literally means a “superior force” and refers to a natural disaster or an occurrence so extraordinary and unpreventable that it can absolve parties of liabilities. One of the attorneys for Deutsche Bank, Steven Molo of New York, marveled at Trump’s audacity.
“He was saying that he had all this money, and everybody else was going to hell in a hand basket, and he’s doing great—and then he filed that lawsuit,” Molo said in an interview with POLITICO this week. He called it “kind of telling” and “kind of crazy.”
In other words, some six weeks after Trump had gone on TV and said he had predicted the recession, he filed a lawsuit clamoring for relief—arguing, essentially, that the American real estate bust was an unforeseeable act of God.
What next, are we now to understand that “Nobody reads the Bible more than I do” is also a lie?
What about “Nobody has more respect for women than I do”?
And what about his claim that he’s worth $10 billion, which for some odd reason he won’t back up by showing us his tax returns. I’m even beginning to wonder about that claim:
WASHINGTON – Republican Donald Trump has canceled TV ads in all but the three largest Ohio TV markets next week, signaling that despite a competitive race in the state, campaign dollars are scarce as Nov. 8 approaches.
Trump canceled roughly $200,000 in advertising in Dayton, Youngstown, Toledo and the Charleston/Huntington West Va. TV markets for the week. He continues to advertise in Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland, according to a source familiar with TV ad buys in the state.
The cuts are part of a larger nationwide cut. Bob Clegg, a political consultant with Midwest Communications, said that he is receiving alerts that Trump’s campaign is also cutting ads in other smaller markets such as Greenville-New Bern, N.C. and Tallahassee, Fla. NBC News reports that Trump is cutting about $1.5 million in advertising nationwide in battleground states such as Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania , Iowa and North Carolina.
But step back from the ledge, Trumpistas. If he lies about everything, then the implication is that he’s also lying when he claims to be a molester. Every cloud has a silver lining.
I had a really good joke involving Tic Tacs to end this post, but in the era of PC I just don’t know. An old guy like me is out of touch with how everything is taboo these days. Almost makes you want to vote for Trump.
PS. Anyone know where I can find S&P500 futures prices during off hours? Someone sent me this, but it stops at 5pm on Friday.
PPS. Jonah Goldberg gets right to the point:
If you can see that, but still think Hillary Clinton would be worse. Fine. Just be prepared for an endless stream of more embarrassments in your name. And, for my friends in the media and in politics, if you minimize, dismiss or celebrate his grotesqueness out of partisan zeal, just keep in mind that some people, including your children, might think you mean it. Or, they might know you don’t mean it. Which means they now know you lie for a living.
And if you can’t see what a hot mess Donald Trump is yet, I doubt you ever will and I wonder what fresh Hell will allow the realization to penetrate your consciousness. Either way, this video is not an aberration. It is not a special circumstance. It’s him. There’s no pivot in him. There’s no “presidential” switch to flip. He’s Donald Trump all the way down. And he will humiliate and debase his defenders so long as they feel the need to defend this indefensible man.
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8. October 2016 at 08:35
Scott,
It appears Trump wasn’t lying about sexual assault.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_57f83edce4b0b6a430326776?ncid=engmodushpmg00000003
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/09/opinion/sunday/donald-trump-groper-in-chief.html?mwrsm=Facebook&referer=https://m.facebook.com/
Fortunately, Trump is finished.
8. October 2016 at 09:56
Trump is a very strange person. He has a carefully mapped out definition of himself. But his actions never approach that overview he gives of himself verbally.
8. October 2016 at 10:39
Trump may be a very strange person. But he is exactly the kind of person that Right Wing media like Fox News, Right Wing web sites, and Right Wing radio, have been laying the groundwork for, for years. They lie constantly and unashamedly. As Bill Maher says, “Trump didn’t create this swamp. He just rose from it.” He just was better at lying and bullying and being bigoted and misogynistic, in ways that GOP voters love to hear, than anyone else before him.
8. October 2016 at 10:42
AS Krugman points out in the NYT, Trump may be cruder and thus more exciting than other Republicans. But most Republicans have been lying constantly for years, including the former GOP VP candidate, Paul Ryan.
The King of False Equivalence
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/10/04/the-king-of-false-equivalence/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body&_r=0
8. October 2016 at 10:44
The conservative political scientists Norm Ornstein say that the political practices that ultimately resulted in Trump, started decades ago, initiated by Newt Gingrich.
The political scientist who saw Trump’s rise coming
Norm Ornstein on why the Republican Party was ripe for a takeover, what the media missed, and whether Trump could win the presidency.
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/6/11598838/donald-trump-predictions-norm-ornstein
8. October 2016 at 10:47
I don’t know of anything better than investing.com for a place where you can get the futures for free, after the regular market closes and before it opens. I am sure there are places you could get the info if you paid for it. I was under the impression that the futures market closes also– just later than the regular market.
8. October 2016 at 12:26
Futures don’t trade on the Sabbath. Globalist cucks, all of ’em.
Resuming at 6pm Sunday:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500.html
FWIW, I predict Trump betting odds resume around 15% on Monday. 10% if the debate is a disaster. Because they are sticky, inertial and slow to react. Or because EMH predicts Putin is sitting on incriminating Hillary e-mails. Your pick.
8. October 2016 at 22:23
[Note: I don’t support Trump. I’m not voting in this cycle.]
Ok, this brouhaha over the tape is ridiculous. I finally saw the full clip on NPR.
To Scott Sumner and others ripping on Trump, a question — you’ve never had a similar conversation with a male friend about a woman (and what you’d like to do to her sexually) before in your entire adult life? An honest yes or no, please.
And btw, Arianne Zuker (the actress from the video in question) seemed quite taken with Trump shortly after meeting him (starts at 5:40).
“By the way, you recently worked with Donald Trump — did you flirt with him?”
Zuker: “I did flirt with Donald… he’s my new best friend.”
Beautiful women are attracted to rich, powerful men. This isn’t “right” or “wrong,” it just is. If that bothers you, you’ll need to find a different planet or species to live with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFneEUeZQVY
9. October 2016 at 02:27
There is a certain theory of George W. Bush which says that his true passion all along has been baseball, and that he was sucked into a (failed) career (or were they just stints?) in various business ventures, and then into politics, because of his family and his father in particular.
I don’t know if that’s theory is true, but it’s delightfully explored in the movie “W.”
There is also a wonderfully weird alternative history romance novel (adapted into a movie starring Ian Holm) in which an elderly Napoleon Bonaparte assumes a new identity after the wars, finds the love of his life in a woman he simply calls “Pumpkin,” settles down with her as the co-owner of a modest fruit business, and the two of them live happily ever after in obscurity.
I have a related theory of Trump, which is that his true passion all along has been acting.
He once considered going to film school at USC, but decided to go into the family real estate business instead to make more money.
He clearly loves attention, much more than public policy or writing those books he didn’t really write.
He has appeared in numerous commercials, movies, and TV shows, but always playing either himself or a nearly-real-life version of himself that is great at business, really rich, and great with women… i.e., he’s never been a “real” actor, but he’s come close.
He’s never been a particularly good businessman per se, but he *does* have a real knack for marketing and promoting a certain celebrity version of himself, which he slaps on various properties and businesses and TV shows in the form of his last name, which makes it *look* like he’s a businessman when in fact his real talent and fortune has always been in a kind of public performance, rather than in management, leadership, inventing things, market analysis, and other traditionally “business” skills.
(That celebrity image truly is the real source of his wealth, according to Trump, along with his inheritance. Literally — he claims his name is an asset worth billions, a substantial chunk of his wealth and perhaps most of it — and figuratively — all these “Trump” properties and businesses have derived the bulk of their value, if and when they have had any, from his last name.)
I hope that after this election season is over and done with somebody writes a really weird book or screenplay in which the Donald finds his big break in Hollywood as a younger man, has to choose between “business” and taking a chance on himself as a “real” actor, becomes something quite ugly but no more harmful than say Mel Gibson, Jon Voight, or Scott Baio, and yet lives a beautiful life in the sense that he actually pursues his true passion and succeeds.
There could be little hints and nods at reality as it has actually unfolded, throughout, and it’d almost make this election cycle worth it.
That is the most optimistic thing I have to say about this election today.
9. October 2016 at 07:49
Scott, I knew he wasn’t lying when he mentioned the furniture store. It’s those odd details that make a story plausible.
John S., Obviously you didn’t listen to the full tape, you better go back and play the whole thing.
But to answer your question, no, I don’t brag that I go around sexually assaulting women because I’m famous and can get away with it—do you?
9. October 2016 at 10:53
I heard far lewder, more misogynistic comments about women — on a regular basis — in fraternity houses. I’ve heard similar things at bars and poker games. I imagine similar conversations can be heard among men in other macho environments (army barracks, police stations, Wall Street, big law).
It’s called bragging, ball-busting, and sexual one upmanship.
I don’t endorse this behavior. But as an empirical statement, I think it’s fair to say most men have made crude and explicit sexual remarks about women at least a few times in their lives among other men (and I’m sure many women return the favor during girls’ nights out). Is this really a surprise to anyone?
W.r.t. sexual assaults, if there are any past victims, they should come forward and Trump should be treated like any other suspect. But “saying” isn’t “doing.” People often say they want to kill people they don’t like. Should I call the cops every time?
There are lots of good reasons to reject Trump, but I’m surprised that THIS is the thing that’s getting so much attention (Trump is crass, who knew?) But, as you’ve said in previous posts, America does tend to lose it’s mind w.r.t. sexual matters, so I guess it does make sense now.
9. October 2016 at 12:15
Hi John S.,
“W.r.t. sexual assaults, if there are any past victims, they should come forward and Trump should be treated like any other suspect.”
Actually sexual assault victims of Donald Trump *have* come forward. Jill Harth is a good example (he literally grabbed her genitals, or tried to, among other things). A calendar model too, though she’s not come forward publicly. Trump’s ex-wife Ivana described under oath, and to a Trump biographer, that Donald raped her in 1989, describing that event in some detail… pretty harrowing stuff.
He’s not a “suspect” in any criminal proceedings, but he is a Presidential candidate, and given the available information I have to conclude that it’s very likely that these comments are not *just* comments, that they accurately reflect not just the general outlook but also the behavior of the man, taken together with everything else he’s said and done. (It’s a long story.)
FWIW, I agree that the comments in and of themselves are gross and not advisable *but are not* automatically way out of the mainstream, and I am finding quite irritating the thunderous clapping sound of men everywhere patting themselves on the back for never, ever saying anything at all like this. To every guy out there saying “I’ve spent plenty of time in locker rooms, this is not locker room talk,” I want to say “Hi, I’m Jacob, I’ve spent time in locker rooms too, and yeah plenty of people *do* say things just as gross as this, all the time, people you know and love, not the *exact same comments* but come on, get real, lewdness and flippancy about serious issues is *not* the exclusive preserve of Donald Trump and other whackos!” The real issue *is* the *context* of those comments, you’re right — and the context is that Trump is a serial philanderer credibly accused of sexual assault, and also not-uncredibly accused of rape, even if he’s never been convicted of anything (typical for sexual abusers), and zillions of comments and decisions he’s made regarding women, even stuff in his books, etc. That context, to me, is what makes these comments go from “regular” gross, to exceptionally gross. Partly he’s joking in those comments, and I think that’s how Billy Bush took it at the time, but he’s not *just* joking, there is a serious and seriously gross underbelly and history and set of behaviors to those comments.
Also FWIW, I find it extremely depressing that Paula Broaddrick has managed to find her public voice this time around at… Breitbart, of all places. Incredibly sad. Her story is really hard to just dismiss out of hand. Bill Clinton, like Trump, is a confirmed serial philanderer who has been credibly accused of sexual assault, and not-uncredibly of rape, again without being convicted of anything (irrelevantly). But in part thanks to Trump’s overall insanity, the neverending stream of targets he puts on his own back with the things he says and does, a serious, legitimate, respectful inquiry into Bill and more importantly Hillary’s treatment of women involved in Bill’s extramarital shenanigans isn’t really happening. And I don’t think such an inquiry would leave people with a more favorable impression of Hillary, to say nothing of Bill, when it comes to women. Their first instinct, both of them, has always been to deny, blame, bury, and destroy Bill’s women on the side. There is an article here and there, the NYTimes did its best a week or two ago about “How Hillary Has Handled Bill’s Extramarital Affairs” or whatever, but if we had even a moderately more serious GOP candidate then I really doubt the media would have such an easy time largely ignoring this issue when it comes to candidates not named Donald Trump.
10. October 2016 at 04:39
Jacob,
Wow, I wasn’t aware of the horrific details of Ivana’s account. If true, that’s heinous. And there probably are other incidents like Jill Harth’s out there.
My intention wasn’t to defend Trump; as you said, I was simply annoyed in the extreme by the instant wave of self-righteous posts by men in the blogosphere (“Oh no, *I* never objectify women, I always think of them as precious angels…”). They acted like they’d never heard such things before — the phoniness just made me want to puke.
Accusations like Jill Harth’s do need to be taken seriously of course. But we also need to remember that they only raise the possibility of sexual assault, NOT its certainty (the same is true of Broaddrick’s accusation; Bill may or may not have raped her, and Hillary may or may not have threatened her — we have no way of knowing the truth).
In all of these cases, it’s her word vs. his, and Trump is still innocent until proven guilty (right?) I wish everyone would adopt a more restrained, objective posture without immediately jumping into hysterics (“Teacher, he said ‘pussy’!”)
Btw, interesting theory about Trump and acting. But I think he’s right where he wanted to be; he wouldn’t have been satisfied with “just” a $10-20 million net worth as an actor. And it wouldn’t have put him in a position to get the Presidential nomination, which is hugely satisfying to his ego.
But you are on to something. He much prefers the outward performance of being rich/powerful/”important” than the actual thing. I’m sure ssumner’s mentioned this before, too.