I rarely watch TV, but I watched a bit of cable news this evening in my hotel. Holy cow, I had forgotten how bad it was. Here are the actual election odds, as of tonight:
It’s a two person race between Trump and Rubio, with Trump leading for the nomination while Rubio is more likely to be elected president. That reflects the fact that Trump’s chances of being elected, conditional on getting the nomination, are abysmal, far below Rubio’s.
The other candidates should just get out. The main question of interest now is who would win between Trump and Rubio on a head to head, with no one else in the race.
I’m surprised that Sanders didn’t fall even more. He did horribly among black voters, and they make up a huge share of the Democratic electorate in the primaries coming up next. He’s about to lose a lot of races. (He won among whites and Hispanics in Nevada, but black voters are the swing group that determines the Democratic nominee.)
Tonight was a disaster for Cruz, as South Carolina is one of his very best states, and he came in third. Rubio will destroy him in big, non-evangelical states like California, New York and Illinois. I think Trump’s best hope is that other non-Rubio candidates stay in the race. He may stop attacking Cruz.
I feel a bit sorry for Jeb. In 1994 he was expected to win Florida and “W” was expected to lose in Texas. On election night it flipped, and Jeb narrowly lost while George Bush won. Florida was trending purple while Texas was trending red. Thus the lesser brother was elected president in 2000, and we know how that turned out. This time Jeb wanted to run on a campaign aimed at grown-ups, but the GOP voters had other ideas.
From the beginning, I’ve thought that Hillary would be the next president, and still believe that. But as you can see, it’s far from a sure thing. Still I’d bet on her; I think the GOP will come out of this badly damaged, and in no position to win.
But then what do I know, I’ve been totally wrong about this race so far.